The Australian dollar descends after the disappointing employment data

• The Australian dollar falls as the weakest employment data reinforces the case for RBA features.
• The change of employment in Australia was 2K in June, compared to the expected 20k, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
• Trump announced plans to notify more than 150 countries in a single letter about an upcoming 10%tariff.

The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciates against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday, going back their recent profits from the previous session. The Aud/USD torque depreciates even more after the publication of disappointing Australian employment data, which reinforces the case for relief by the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA).

The Australian Statistics Office reported Thursday that the change in employment was seasonally adjusted 2K in June, recovering from an previous 2.5K fall in May, although well below the 20K new expected jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from the previous 4.1%. The figure exceeded the 4.1%market consensus.

The Aud/USD torque was appreciated as the market feeling improved after the comments of US President Donald Trump in an interview with the Royal Network of America’s Voice on Wednesday. Trump said he would love that the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, resigned, but that would disturb the markets if the president decided to dismiss him. He also mentioned the possibility of reaching an agreement with Europe. As for tariffs on Canada, he said it is too early to comment. However, a tariff agreement with India is very close.

The Australian dollar loses ground while the US dollar remains firm before retail sales data

• The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is rising and quoting around 98.50 at the time of writing. The operators will be attentive to the retail sales of the US for June, followed by the initial weekly applications of unemployment subsidy and the manufacturing index of the Fed of Philadelphia that will be published later on Thursday.
• The US Production Price Index. Meanwhile, the underlying IPP increased a 2.6% year -on -year compared to the previous 3.0%, softer than the 2.7% expected.
• On Wednesday, Trump said he plans to send a single letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them about a 10% tariff rate they will face. He emphasized that these are not “large countries” with limited commercial links with the US, unlike China or Japan. He also hinted that the rate could increase to 15-20%, although it did not confirm any specific detail.
• The US Consumer Price (CPI) increased increased by 2.7% year -on -year in June, complying with market expectations. The underlying IPC stood at 2.9%, just below the 3.0% forecast but still significantly above the 2% target of the Federal Reserve. The June inflation figures, higher than expected, revived concerns about prolongly high interest rates of the Fed.
• The president of the Fed de Dallas, Lorie Logan, spoke at an event of the World Affairs Council in San Antonio on Tuesday, noting that the US Central Bank will probably need to maintain interest rates where they are for a while to ensure that inflation remains low against the upward pressure of the Trump administration tariffs.
• Trump has threatened to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if a peace agreement is not reached in 50 days. Trump also warned of tariffs secondary to countries that import Russian oil. In addition, Trump, together with NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, confirmed that European allies will buy weapons made in the US for bills of dollars, such as Patriot missile systems. These weapons will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to deal with intensified Russian attacks.
• The US government immediately imposed a 17% tariff on Monday over most of the imports of fresh tomatoes in Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avoid the tariff. Trump announced, on Saturday, a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico as of August 1. He also proposed a general tariff rate of 15%-20%on other commercial partners, an increase with respect to the current base rate of 10%. In response, the European Union announced on Sunday that it will extend its pause in retaliation measures against US tariffs until early August, hoping to reach a negotiated agreement.
• The Chinese economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to a growth of 5.4% in the first quarter and the expected growth of 5.1%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product rate (GDP) increased 1.1% in the second quarter, compared to the market consensus of an increase of 0.9%. In addition, retail sales increased 4.8% year -on -year in June, compared to 5.6% expected and 6.4% previous, while industrial production stood at 6.8%, compared to 5.6% expected.
• Westpac’s consumer confidence in Australia on Tuesday, which rose 0.6% month by month in July, after an increase of 0.5% in June. This marked a third consecutive monthly increase, pointing out a modest but encouraging improvement in consumer perspectives.
• The AU could face challenges since markets expect 80% probability of a rate cut of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) in August. The markets also await a 75 basic points cut by the beginning of 2026. However, the governor of the RBA, Michele Bullock, declared that the risks of inflation persist, citing the high unit labor costs and the weak productivity as factors that could carry inflation above the current projections.

The Australian dollar falls below 0.6500, testing the 50 -day Ema

The Aud/USD torque is negotiating around 0.6490 on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily graphic indicated a weakening of the bullish bias since the torque has broken below the ascending channel pattern. In addition, the 14 -day relative force index (RSI) is positioned below level 50, suggesting that market bias is weakening. The pair is maintained below the nine -day exponential mobile average (EMA), indicating that the impulse of the short -term price is weaker.

Down, the Aud/USD torque is testing 50 days at 0.6489, aligned with a minimum of three weeks at 0.6485. A rupture below this level would weaken the impulse of the price in the medium term and lead to the pair to navigate in the region around the psychological level of 0.6400.

The Aud/USD torque could try to return to the channel and test the nine -day EMA at 0.6531. A rupture above this level could strengthen the impulse of the short -term price and support the torque to approach to the maximum of eight months of 0.6595, which was reached on July 11.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic