- The Australian dollar depreciates against the US dollar while the solid labor market data weakens the hopes of feature cuts by the Fed.
- The House of Representatives has approved the fiscal bill “one, big, beautiful” of President Trump and has sent it to his signature.
- Non -agricultural payrolls of the US were located at 147,000 new jobs added in June, exceeding 110,000 expected.
The Australian dollar (aud) extends its losses against the US dollar (USD) on Friday, since the growth of employment in the US was stronger than expected and a surprising fall in the unemployment rate eclipses the hopes of the investors of a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The US Non -Agricultural Payroll (NFP) report occupied the center of the stage on Thursday, since it was published in a week shortened by the US Day of Independence of the US Independence. Although the solid employment numbers could typically support the US dollar and exert down pressure on the aud/USD torque.
The merchants will probably observe the next monthly indicator of spending on Australia’s households, which will be published later in the day. The attention will focus on the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) next week. Markets generally anticipate a 25 basic point rate cut, which would reduce the 3.60%cash.
The Australian dollar depreciates the US dollar after labor market data
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is quoted down around 97.00 at the time of writing.
- The fiscal bill “one, big, beautiful” of President Donald Trump was approved by the House of Representatives and sent to Trump for his signature.
- The NFP indicated that the US workforce grew by 147,000 jobs, exceeding 110,000 anticipated in June. In addition, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, the weekly applications of unemployment subsidy fell to 233,000, from 237,000, reflecting an American resilient labor market.
- The change of employment of ADP in the US fell for the first time in more than two years in June. Private sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after an increase reviewed down 29,000 in May. This figure was below the market consensus of 95,000.
- The USM manufacturing PMI of the United States advanced to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, exceeding the expectations of experts of 48.8. The readings indicated that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector improved in June. Meanwhile, US Jolts job offers increased to 7.76 million in May, compared to 7,395 million reported in April. This figure was above the market expectation of 7.3 million.
- In the nearby commercial partner of Australia, China, the PMI of Services Caixin fell to 50.6 in June from 51.1 in May, failing to meet the market forecast of 51.0. The Purchase Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing Caixin of China improved 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, according to the latest data published on Tuesday. Reading exceeded 49.0 market forecast.
- The Australian Statistics Office (ABS) reported that the commercial surplus was reduced to 2,238 million dollars month to month in May, compared to the 6,091 million expected and 4,859 million (reviewed from 5,431 million) in April. Meanwhile, exports fell 2.7% month to month from -1.7% (reviewed from -2.4%) above. Imports increased 3.8% month by month, compared to the previous increase of 1.6% (reviewed from 1.1%).
- The index composed of purchasing managers (PMI) of S&P Global Australia rose to 51.6 in June from the previous reading of 50.5. Reading has marked a ninth consecutive month of growth and the fastest rate since March. Meanwhile, the PMI of Services rose to 51.8 from 50.6 above, indicating the fastest rhythm of expansion since May 2024.
- The Australian Statistics Office (ABS) showed that retail sales increased 0.2% month by month in May, compared to a 0% plane in April (reviewed from -0.1%). The reading was below the market expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, construction permits increased 3.2%in May, compared to the anterior fall of 4.1%, but were below the expected increase of 4.8%.
- The purchasing managers index (PMI) Global S&P of Australia fell to 50.6 in June from the previous 51.0. The production fell to its lowest reading since February due to adequate inventories of customers and weaker market conditions, as the data showed on Tuesday.
The Australian dollar remains below the maximum of eight months about 0.6600
The AUD/USD is quoted around 0.6570 on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a predominant bullish bias as the torque moves up into the ascending channel pattern. The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains above 50, reinforcing the upward feeling. In addition, the torque is maintained above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, suggesting that the impulse of short -term prices is stronger.
On the positive side, the Aud/USD torque could try the maximum of eight months of 0.6590, which was marked on July 1. A successful rupture above this level could support the torque to test the upper limit of the upward channel around 0.6660.
The nine -day EMA at 0.6553 appears as the main support. A rupture below this level would weaken the impulse of short -term prices and exert the downward pressure on the AUD/USD torque to test the lower limit of the upward channel around 0.6500, aligned with the 50 -day EMA at 0.6470.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the weakest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.05% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.00% | |
| Aud | -0.11% | 0.01% | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.03% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Australian dollar – frequent questions
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
