- The Australian dollar can be seen while Australia prepares for new commercial negotiations with the European Union.
- The China consumer price index decreased 0.1% year -on -year in March, after a fall of 0.7% in February.
- President Trump announced a 90 -day break in new tariffs for most US business partners, reducing them to 10%.
The Australian dollar (AUD) regained ground against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday after the news that Australia is preparing for new commercial negotiations with the European Union (EU). The EU decided to resume stagnant conversations. During a one -hour video meeting on Wednesday night, the EU Commission of Commerce, Maros Sefcovic, suggested establishing a new schedule to restart discussions with his Australian counterpart, Don Farrell. The anterior round of extensive negotiations broke two years ago due to disagreements about agricultural access to the 450 million EU consumers.
The pair AUD/USD He weakened after US President Donald Trump climbed commercial tensions with China by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, which generated concern due to the close commercial ties of Australia with China.
China is increasing tariffs on all US imports to 84% and added six American companies – like the Shield AI and Sierra Nevada defense and aerospace companies – to their commercial commercial list. He also imposed export controls to a dozen American companies, including American Photony and Brinc Drones.
He Consumer Price Index (CPI) of China fell 0.1% year -on -year in March, after a fall of 0.7% in February and did not reach the predicted increase of 0.1%. The monthly inflation of the CPI fell 0.4%, worse than the 0.2% February drop and market expectations. Meanwhile, the production price index (IPP) fell 2.5% per year, more than the 2.2% drop in February and the projection of a 2.3% decrease.
The economic perspectives of Australia They are still fragile, with business and lagged consumer confidence. Weak data have strengthened the expectations of a more moderate Australia (RBA) reserve bank, with markets now valuing up to 100 basic points in rates cuts this year – starting in May, with more expected reductions in July and August.
The Australian dollar can face winds against the US CPI data before
- The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD in front of a basket of six main currencies, is negotiating about 102.60 at the time of writing. Attention now focuses on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which will be published later on Thursday.
- On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90 -day break in new tariffs for most US business partners, reducing them to 10% to allow space for ongoing negotiations. “The 90 -day pause is an encouraging sign that negotiations with most countries have been productive,” said Nationwide Mark Hacktt. “It also injects some very necessary stability into a market shaken by uncertainty.”
- The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) suggested that those responsible for the policy are almost unanimously agreed that the US economy faces the double risk of an increase in inflation and slow growth, warning about “difficult compensation” ahead of the Federal Reserve.
- Fed officials continue to minimize the immediate impact of growing commercial tensions, maintaining that policy decisions will continue to be based on data. Market participants are now valuing only 40% probability of a feat cut at the Fed meeting next month, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
- In addition to the global commercial panorama, The Wall Street Journal reported that China maintained discussions with the head of the European Union, Maros Sefcovic, expressing its willingness to deepen commercial, investment and industrial cooperation with the EU.
- In Australia, the feeling of the consumer weakened significantly, with the Westpac consumer confidence index falling 6% in April after an increase of 4% in March, the first fall since January.
- Australia’s business feeling was also softened, since NAB’s business trusted index fell to -3 in March from a revised -2, its lowest reading since November. Business conditions remained relatively stable but slightly below the average, modestly improving 3 to 4.
The Australian dollar goes back from the nine -day Ema about 0.6150
The aud/USD is quoting about 0.6140 on Thursday, with the indicators Technicians in the graphic diary Pointing to a sustained bearish bias, since the torque has retired from the nine -day exponential mobile average (EMA). In addition, the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is below 50, suggesting the reinforcement of the bearish bias.
The immediate support is observed in 0.5914 – marking the lowest level since March 2020, followed by the psychological level of 0.5900.
On the positive side, the initial resistance is found in the nine -day EMA around 0.6147, followed by the 50 -day EMA at 0.6261. A stronger recovery could be seen in the pair, testing the maximum of four months at 0.6408.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the weakest currency against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | 0.04% | -0.76% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.55% | -0.53% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.14% | -0.43% | 0.35% | 0.08% | -0.26% | -0.23% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.57% | 0.22% | -0.07% | -0.40% | -0.48% | |
| JPY | 0.76% | 0.43% | 0.57% | 0.80% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.35% | -0.22% | -0.80% | -0.29% | -0.61% | -0.70% | |
| Aud | 0.22% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.52% | 0.29% | -0.33% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.26% | 0.40% | -0.14% | 0.61% | 0.33% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.53% | 0.23% | 0.48% | -0.33% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
