The Australian dollar remains despite weaker monthly retail sales than expected

• The Australian dollar maintains its position despite a disappointing increase in monthly retail sales for March.
• The AU can be under pressure as the renewed fears of a global economic slowdown weigh on raw material markets.
• Trump pointed out possible commercial agreements with India, Japan and South Korea, and expressed optimism about reaching a resolution with China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is bouncing modestly against the US dollar (USD) on Friday, recovering some of the losses of the previous session. However, the aud/USD torque is still vulnerable since the fall in metal prices weighs on feeling. Key raw materials such as iron ore, copper and gold have decreased amid renewed concerns about a global economic slowdown, pressing the Australian dollar linked to raw materials.

Adding to the pressure, the relaxation signs of the US commercial tensions have backed the US dollar. The feeling of investors changed after the US president, Donald Trump, pointed out possible commercial agreements with India, Japan and South Korea, and expressed optimism about resolving tensions with China.

Australian retail sales – a key indicator of consumer spending – aimed 0.3% month by month in March, compared to an increase of 0.2% in February, according to data published on Friday by the Australian Statistics Office (ABS). However, the figure did not meet market expectations, which had predicted an increase of 0.4%.

According to Bloomberg, China is considering resuming commercial conversations with the US. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said Washington has contacted to express interest in resuming negotiations. However, China is carrying out an internal evaluation and argues that the US should correct its actions related to tariffs, which considers the unilateral trigger for the current commercial dispute.

Australia goes to the polls this weekend, and the result presents several risks for the Australian dollar. Current surveys slightly favor the acting prime minister, Anthony Albanese, but the race is still at odds. A key concern is the possibility of Albanese to win only one minority, forcing him to form a government with the support of the green and/or independent – which increases the risk of more expansive fiscal policies and a possible fiscal sliding. Another short -term risk is the possibility of a delayed result, without a clear result that emerges for several days after the vote.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened the expectations of greater monetary relief by the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA). However, markets anticipate a 25 basic points rate cut in May, since policies responsible are prepared for possible economic repercussions of tariffs recently introduced by the US.

The Australian dollar advances despite a stronger American dollar due to the cautious feeling of risk

• The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD in front of a basket of six main currencies, is rising for the fourth consecutive day, quoting about 100.30 at the time of writing. The feeling of the market is still cautious before the next report of non -agricultural payroll (NFP), since investors seek information on how tariffs can be impacting employment trends.
• The dollar is backed by a feeling of cautious risk and yield dynamics. However, their broader profits remain limited while markets expect the employment data of Friday, particularly in the light of weaker labor and manufacturing indicators than expected.
• The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0, indicating a continuous contraction in the sector. Although it is still below the 50.0 expansion threshold, the reading was better than the expectations of 48.0.
• Initial unemployment subsidy applications increased to 241,000 for the week ending on April 26, above both the provision of the 224,000 consensus and the revised figure of the previous week of 223,000. Meanwhile, the employment index within the ISM survey showed a modest improvement, rising to 46.5 from 44.7. Although it still points out in manufacturing employment, the pace of deterioration seems to be slowing down.
• The president of the USA, Donald Trump, during an interview at the Town Hall of Newsnation on Thursday morning, optimism said on a possible commercial agreement with China, stating that there is a “very good probability that we reach an agreement.” Trump emphasized that any agreement with China must comply with the US conditions also mentioned the possibility of future commercial agreements with India, South Korea and Japan, and pointed out that an agreement with Ukraine was ended earlier in the day.
• The Australia Statistics Office on Thursday reported a commercial surplus of 6.9 billion AUs for March, significantly exceeding 3.13 billion AUs and the February revised figure 2.85 billion AUD (lowering 2.97 billion AU). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% increase in exports and a 2.2% decrease in imports for the month.
• On Wednesday, the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) reported that the consumer price index (ICC) increased 0.9% quarter to quarter in the first quarter of 2025, compared to a 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations of an increase of 0.8%. In annual terms, the CPI rose 2.4% in the first quarter, exceeding the 2.2% forecast.
• The Australian treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said the markets still anticipate more interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he said, adding that “there is nothing in these numbers that substantially alter market expectations.”
• In China, the National Statistics Office (NBS) reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers (PMI) index fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, being below the consensus of 49.9 and indicating a return to contraction. The non -manufacturing PMI was also softened, going down to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.

The Australian dollar finds support at 0.6400 near the nine -day EMA

The Aud/USD is quoting around 0.6410 on Friday, maintaining a bullish bias in the daily chart. The pair continues to remain above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, while the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains comfortably above 50, which suggests a sustained ascending impulse.

The Aud/USD torque could find immediate resistance in the recent maximum of four months of 0.6449, registered on April 29. A decisive rupture above this level could pave the way to the maximum of five months at 0.6515.

Downwards, the initial support is in the nine -day EMA at 0.6387, followed by the 50 -day EMA at 0.6320. A rupture below these levels could weaken the upward perspective and could expose the torque to deeper losses, with the minimum of March 2020 about 0.5914 as a distant bearish objective.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic