The Australian dollar remains stable after data on the TD-MI inflation index

• The Australian dollar remains firm while the TD-MI inflation indicator rose 0.9% intermensual in July.
• The audience found support after Australia was excluded from the last round of US tariffs increases.
• A weaker employment fact in the US led markets to anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Fed.

The Australian dollar (AUD) advances against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, extending its profits for the second consecutive negotiation day. The Aud/USD torque gained ground after the publication of the Australian inflation indicator data.

The TD-MI inflation indicator rose 0.9% month by month in July, after a modest increase of 0.1% in June and marking the most pronounced increase since December 2023. Meanwhile, the annual inflation indicator remained constant with an increase of 2.4%. The monthly increase adds to the concerns of the Bank of the Reserve of Australia (RBA) in the middle of the continuous uncertainty in the supply chains and the consumer’s demand.

The Aud also received support since Australia was exempt from the latest increases in US tariffs, indicating that President Donald Trump left unchanged 10% base tariffs on Australian products. In addition, a weaker employment report in the United States caused a market reaction to anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The United States and China could not reach an agreement on the extension of the 90 -day tariff pause during their last round of conversations in Stockholm, Sweden. The current pause is scheduled to expire on August 12, with the final decision in the hands of the US president, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, US tariffs have been reduced from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs have been reduced from 125% to 10%.

The Australian dollar stabilizes despite a stable US dollar in the midst of an uncertain perspective of the Fed

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is bouncing after a strong drop in the previous session and quoting around 98.70 at the time of writing.
• Non -agricultural payroll (NFP) in the United States (USA) increased by 73,000 in July, compared to an increase of 14,000 (revised 147,000) observed in June. This figure was weaker than the expectation of the market of 110,000. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, as expected.
• President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%, which will enter into force on August 1, on US imports of dozens of foreign countries and locations, including Canada, India and Taiwan, who failed to comply with the term of commercial agreements, according to Reuters.
• The inflation of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) USA UP. In annual terms, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% year -on -year, exceeding the expectation of staying at 2.5%.
• The Federal Reserve (FED) decided to maintain its reference federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% -4.5% at its July meeting on Wednesday, as expected widely. The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, said at a conference after the policy that the US Central Bank “has not made decisions” about a possible policy change in September, and can take time to evaluate the effect of tariffs on consumer prices.
• The president of the USA, Donald Trump, announced a new commercial agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff on the US on the imports of South Korea. The agreement also includes a commitment of 350,000 million dollars from South Korea to controlled investments and American property, Reuters reported Wednesday.
• The United States and the European Union reached a commercial framework agreement on Sunday that establishes 15% tariffs on most European goods, which will enter into force on August 1. This agreement has ended a stagnation of months, according to Bloomberg.
• The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, said during an “Squawk Box” interview by CNBC on Thursday, expressing confidence that the US and China can reach a commercial agreement as a key term of tariffs approaches. Besent said: “I think we have the foundations for an agreement.” “There are still some technical details to be resolved on the Chinese side among us. I am sure it will be done, but it is not 100% done,” he added.
• China’s Minister of Finance, Lan Fo’an, said Tuesday that the country will increase tax support to boost domestic consumption and mitigate the growing winds against economic. He emphasized that the uncertainty about China’s development environment is growing and Beijing will adopt more proactive fiscal policies to help stabilize growth.
• Australia’s Minister of Commerce, Don Farrell, declared on Friday that the White House had confirmed that no country enjoys reciprocal tariffs than Australia. He added that this gives Australian products a competitive advantage in the US market, which could boost exports. “We will support all our exporters to make the most of this opportunity to increase export volumes,” Farrell said.
• Australia’s Producer Price Index (IPP) increased 0.7% intertrimestral in the second quarter, compared to the expected and previous increase of 0.9%. The annual IPP rose 3.4% in the second quarter compared to the previous 3.7%. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers index (PMI) Caixin of Chinese manufacturing was reduced to 49.5 in July from 50.4 in June. This figure was below the 50.3 market forecast.

The Australian dollar remains above 0.6450 despite a bass bias

The aud/USD is quoting around 0.6480 on Monday. The technical analysis in the daily graphic suggests a bearish bias, with the relative force index (RSI) of 14 days remaining below level 50. The torque is also positioned below the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, indicating a weakening of the short -term impulse.

Down, the Aud/USD torque could find the main support in the minimum of two months of 0.6419, which was recorded on August 1. A rupture below this level could exert down pressure on the torque to test a minimum of three months at 0.6372, registered on June 23.

The aud/USD torque can point to the initial barrier in the nine -day EMA of 0.6492, aligned with the 50 -day EMA of 0.6495. A rupture above these levels could strengthen the impulse of short and medium term prices and support the torque to explore the region around nine months by 0.6625.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic