- The Australian dollar received a late impulse last week after the US dollar collapsed through the bad NFP numbers.
- An average level data agenda awaits Australian operators this week.
- The last decision of RBA rates will be announced next week, and a cut seems likely after IPC inflation has been further softened.
The Australian dollar (AUD) remained stable on Monday, clinging to the late profits last week against the US dollar (USD). The AUD/USD maintained a firm control in the 0.6470 region, maintaining the 200 -day exponential mobile (EMA) mobile average. A very necessary time of sales of the US dollar helped break the six -day streak of the aussie losses, and the operators are now pivoting to observe commercial holders.
The inflation indicator of the Melbourne Institute (MI) of Australia reached a maximum of 20 months in July, increasing a monthly 0.9%, its largest monthly increase since December 2023. The Australian consumer price index (CPI) was softened to 1.9% last week, dragging the inflation metrics of the first quarter below the target range of 2-3% of the 2-3% Australia (RBA) and ensuring a rate cut in the next decision of interest rates on August 12.
The Australian markets remain exposed to the repercussions of the volatile tariff policies of the Trump administration, maintaining the general appetite due to the low risk in the Australian barracks. Australia is opening its consumer market to Canada’s meat imports for the first time since 2003, which could harm the statements of US President Donald Trump that the US will export large amounts of American beef to Australian markets as a result of their aggressive tariff policies directed to Australia.
Week with few data puts commercial headlines in the foreground
The Australian data agenda is medium level this week. The figures of the Australian trade balance for June will be published on Thursday and are expected to show a leap of 2,238 million dollars to 3.25 million dollars per month; However, the figure is too outdated for investors to do something about it.
Before that, the last index of purchasing managers (PMI) of China services for July will be published early on Tuesday. The collateral effects for the Australian dollar could arise as data observers expect signals that Trump administration tariff plans for China could have collateral effects on the Australian economy. It is expected that the Caixin services PMI of China for Julio down 50.2 from 50.6.
Australia leaves Tesla de Musk as the reimbursements of the domestic battery system are activated
The Superstar of Electric Vehicles Tesla (TSLA) has been back in global sales in 2025, and the fall of Tesla has now extended to the domestic battery market. The global Tesla participation in domestic battery sales for energy storage has been reduced from 20% to 5% in seven months. The “brand destruction” by Elon Musk is incredibly badly timed: the reimbursements of the Australian government for domestic batteries systems are starting this year, and Australia is on the way to selling as many batteries in the first ten weeks of the reimbursement program as sold in all 2024.
According to a report by the Australian market research firm Roy Morgan, Tesla and the adjacent companies of Elon Musk have fallen into the Top 10 of the least reliable companies in Australia, joining the Chinese giant of Temu discount products, to X/Musk’s Twitter and Facebook as some of the least confiable companies in the Australian market.
Daily Aud/USD
Australian dollar – frequent questions
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
