The Australian dollar remains strong after the decision on the interest rate of the PBOC

• The Australian dollar maintains its position while the Popular Bank of China announced that it will leave the preferential rates of unchanged loans.
• The PBOC held the LPR for a year and five years at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, on Friday.
• The US dollar could recover ground due to the possible threat of the US direct participation in the conflicts of the Middle East.

The Australian dollar (AUD) goes back its recent losses on Friday. The Aud/USD pair remains strong after the publication of the decision on China’s interest rate. However, the torque potential could be limited due to the feeling of attenuated risk amid the growing tensions in the Middle East.

The Popular Bank of China (PBOC) decided to leave its preferential loan rates (LPR) without changes on Friday. The LPR at one year and five years were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

The US intelligence agencies believe that Iran has not yet decided if it will manufacture a nuclear weapon, although it has developed a large enriched uranium stockpile necessary to make a bomb. However, Iran would probably change towards the production of a bomb if the US army attacked the Uranium enrichment site of Iran in Fordo, or if Israel kill the Supreme leader of Iran, added sources of intelligence from USAs of the US to the New York Times.

The US dollar (USD) received support from a greater demand for safe refuge amid the growing concerns about the possible participation of the US in the Air War between Israel and Iran. The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its seventh day while the two countries continue with more air attacks on Thursday. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that US president Donald Trump will decide in two weeks if attacking Iran.

The Australian Statistics Office on Thursday reported that the variation in employment fell by 2.5K in May compared to an 87.6K increase in April (89K reviewed) and the consensus forecast of an increase of 25K. In addition, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% in May, as expected.

The Australian dollar can be seen while the US dollar extends losses in a technical setback

• The dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is quoting down around 98.60 at the time of writing. Operators are likely to evaluate the FED monetary policy report, scheduled for publication on Friday.
• The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to maintain the stable interest rate at 4.5% in June, as expected widely. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still provides for about 50 basic points of cuts in the interest rate until the end of 2025.
• The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, warned that the continuous uncertainty of the policy will keep the Fed in a position of maintaining the fees, and any rate cut will depend on an additional improvement in the labor and inflationary data.
• Bloomberg cited fonts unidentified on Thursday, informing that “US officials prepare for a possible attack on Iran in the next few days.” “US plans for any attack on Iran continue to evolve.” In addition, the Wall Street Journal cited people familiar with discussions, saying that President Trump said Tuesday night that he approved the attack plans for Iran, but kept him to see if Tehán would leave his nuclear program.
• On Tuesday, the US president, Donald Trump, published on his social media platform, asking for the “unconditional surrender” of Iran. Investors are concerned that the United States participates in the Israel-Iran conflict.
• G7 leaders issued a joint statement on Monday: “We have been consistently clear in which Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” The leaders emphasized that resolving the Iranian crisis could lead to a broader discawacy of hostilities in the region.
• China’s retail sales increased by 6.4% year -on -year in May, exceeding 5.0% expected and the increase of 5.1% in April. Meanwhile, industrial production increased 5.8% year -on -year, but was below the 5.9% and 6.1% prognosis.
• In addition, the China National Statistics Office (NBS) said that the domestic economy is expected to have generally stable in the first (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China could face difficulties since the second quarter due to uncertain commercial policies.

The Australian dollar proves the nine -day Ema barrier about 0.6500

The aud/USD is quoting around 0.6480 on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the rebirth of the bullish bias while the Par tries to bounce towards the pattern of ascending channel. In addition, the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is positioned slightly above the 50 -mark, suggesting the strengthening of bullish bias. However, the torque is positioned below the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, indicating that the impulse of the short -term price remains weaker.

A successful return to the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to test the barrier in the nine -day EMA of 0.6492, followed by the maximum of seven months of 0.6552, which was recorded on June 16. A rupture above this crucial resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and take the torque to aim at a maximum of eight months at 0.6687, followed by the upper limit of the upward channel around 0.6760.

At the bottom, the Aud/USD torque could point to the 50 -day EMA at 0.6436. A rupture below this level would weaken the impulse of the price in the medium term and exert the downward pressure on the torque to navigate in the region around 0.5914, the lowest level since March 2020.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic