The Australian dollar remains strong due to the optimistic data of the commercial balance

• The Australian dollar maintains profits after the publication of more solid data of the trade balance on Thursday.
• The Australian Statistics Office reported a commercial surplus of 6.9 billion AUs for March, exceeding 3.13 billion AUD.
• President Trump expressed optimism about a possible commercial agreement with China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is extending its profits against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday. The Aud/USD torque can be seen after the publication of the data of the Australian trade balance. It is likely that the operators are waiting for the data of the purchasing managers (PMI) manufacturing index of the United States Supply Management Institute (US) scheduled to be published later in the North American session.

The Australian Statistics Office reported a commercial surplus of 6.9 billion AUs for March, significantly exceeding 3.13 billion Aud and the February 2.85 billion audience figure (falling from 2.97 billion AU). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% increase in exports and a 2.2% decrease in imports during the month.

On Wednesday, the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (IPC) increased 0.9% quarter to quarter in the first quarter of 2025, rising from an increase of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations of an increase of 0.8%. In annual terms, the CPI rose 2.4% in the first quarter, exceeding the 2.2% forecast.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened the expectations of greater monetary relief by the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA). Markets widely anticipate a 25 basic points rate cut in May, since policy responsible are prepared for possible economic repercussions of recently introduced US tariffs.

The US dollar gains support since US President Donald Trump, during an interview in Newsnation Town Hall early on Thursday, said optimism on a possible commercial agreement with China, stating that there is a “very good probability that we reach an agreement.” Trump emphasized that any agreement with China must comply with the US conditions also mentioned the possibility of future commercial agreements with India, South Korea and Japan, and pointed out that an agreement with Ukraine was ended earlier in the day.

The Australian dollar maintains its position despite an improved US dollar

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the USD compared to six main currencies, is gaining ground for the third consecutive day and quoting around level 99.70 at the time of writing. The US dollar is strengthened as operators reduce the expectations of a 1% interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, after data that indicates a contraction in the US economy the last quarter.
• According to figures published on Thursday by the US Department of Commerce, the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, being below the anticipated growth of 0.4% and marking a strong fall from the expansion of 2.4% in the anterior quarter.
• On Tuesday, the US Labor Statistics Office reported that employment vacancies and the labor rotation survey (Jolts) fell to 7.19 million in March, lowering a 7.48 million revised in February and below the market forecast of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, reflecting a weakened labor demand in the midst of the growing economic uncertainty in the United States (USA).
• US President Donald Trump showed opening to reduce Chinese tariffs, while Beijing exempt certain American products from his taxes of 125%. This movement has fed hope that the prolonged commercial war between the two largest economies in the world could be coming to an end.
• Australia’s monthly IPC remained stable with an interannual increase of 2.4% in March. Meanwhile, the CPI adjusted by the Bank of Australia (RBA) reserve increased by 2.9% year -on -year in the first quarter, in line with expectations, while the quarterly figure also complied with the forecasts by 0.7%.
• The Australian treasurer Jim Chalmers said the markets still anticipate more interest rate cuts. “The market awaits more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he said, adding that “there is nothing in these numbers that substantially alter market expectations.”
• In China, the National Statistics Office (NBS) reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers (PMI) index fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, being below the consensus of 49.9 and indicating a return to contraction. The non -manufacturing PMI was also weakened, going down to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.
• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday to make concessions and retreat would only encourage the bully, emphasizing that dialogue is key to solving differences.

The Australian dollar remains above 0.6400; Find support near the nine -day EMA

The Aud/USD torque is negotiating about 0.6410 on Thursday, with the daily graphic maintaining a bullish tone. The torque is maintained above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, and the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains comfortably above the 50 mark, both indicating a continuous rising impulse.

On the positive side, the immediate resistance is located in the recent maximum of four months of 0.6449, reached on April 29. A clear rupture above this level could open the door towards the maximum of five months of 0.6515.

On the negative side, the initial support is seen in the nine -day EMA at 0.6388, followed by the 50 -day EMA in 0.6317. A rupture below these levels would undermine the bullish inclination and could expose to the torque to a greater fall, potentially pointing to the minimum of March 2020 about 0.5914.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic