- The Australian dollar lowers while operators adopt caution in the midst of the current war between Israel and Iran.
- The AU could recover land due to optimism after the report that Iran requested a high immediate fire.
- The operators expect the US retail sales data for May that will be published on Tuesday.
The Australian dollar (AUD) decreases against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday, retreating its recent profits recorded in the previous session. The Aud/Usd torque faces challenges while operators adopt caution in the midst of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
However, the aud/USD torque, sensitive to risk, gained ground due to optimism after the report that Iran asked for many countries, including Oman, Catar and Saudi Arabia, who urged the US president, Donald Trump, to use his influence on Israel for a high immediate fire, according to Reuters. In addition, the feeling of risk improved since Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed with Trump that his two nations should try to close an agreement on tariffs within 30 days.
The operators expect Australia’s upcoming labor data this week, including employment change and unemployment rate, which is expected to offer a new impetus on the strength of the domestic economy and shape the expectations about the policy perspective of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA).
The Australian dollar falls while the US dollar rises due to risk aversion
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar compared to six main currencies, is quoted up to 98.20 at the time of writing. The US retail sales data will be observed on Tuesday. The attention will focus on the decision of interest rates of the Federal Reserve (FED), which will be announced on Wednesday.
- On Monday, President Trump requested the evacuation of the capital of Iran, Tehran, hours after urging the country’s leaders to accept an agreement to limit their nuclear program, since Israel hinted that the attacks would continue, according to Bloomberg.
- Trump published in a social network: “What a shame, and a waste of human life. I will simply have no nuclear weapon. I have said it again and again! Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately. Iran should have signed the ‘agreement’ that I told them to sign.”
- The University of Michigan (UOM) reported Friday that the consumer’s feeling index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2 previous. This reading was above the market consensus of 53.5.
- The US Production Price Index. This reading was softer than the expected increase of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the underlying IPP, excluding food and energy, increased an intermencing 0.1% in May compared to -0.2% previous (revised of -0.4%), below the consensus of 0.3%.
- The Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to maintain its policy rate without changes in the range of 4.25% –4.50% in its next decision on Wednesday. Operators now expect a 25 basic points cut for September.
- Reuters reported on Thursday that President Trump expanded steel tariffs from June 23 on the “imported -derived products”, including appliances, such as dishwasher, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. Tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and then doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of the affected products is extended.
- China’s retail sales increased by 6.4% year -on -year in May, exceeding 5.0% expected and the increase of 5.1% in April. Meanwhile, industrial production increased 5.8% year -on -year, but was below the 5.9% and 6.1% prognosis.
- In addition, the National Statistics Office (NBS) of China said that the domestic economy is expected to be generally stable during the first half (H1) of 2025. However, economic growth in China could face difficulties from the second quarter due to uncertain commercial policies.
The Australian dollar falls near the nine -day em.
The AUD/USD is quoted around 0.6510 on Tuesday. The bullish bias prevails, since the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the torque is maintained within the ascending channel. In addition, the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains above 50, suggesting a predominant bullish perspective. Additionally, the pair is positioned above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, indicating that the impulse of short -term prices is stronger.
The torque could aim at the new seven months of 0.6552, which was reached on June 16. A rupture above this level could support the torque to aim at the maximum of eight months at 0.6687, followed by the upper limit of the upward channel around 0.6730.
On the negative side, the AUD/USD torque could try the nine -day EMA at 0.6506, followed by the lower limit of the upward channel around 0.6470. A rupture below the channel would indicate a weakening of the bullish bias and exert the downward pressure on the torque to test the 50 -day emma at 0.6431.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the weakest currency against the Swiss Franco.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.04% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.03% | |
| Aud | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
