SPAIN it faces a new economic contraction in the first quarter of the year after the country suffered its worst peacetime crash last year. Data such as the estimate of Gross Domestic Product (START) in real time from the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) indicated so, and that is what the Bank of Spain in the economic projections published this Tuesday.
“The Spanish GDP could have fallen slightly in the period January-March 2021 “, points out the agency, which in its central scenario foresees a fall of 0.4%. In its most adverse scenario, on the other hand, the figure reaches -0.9%, while in the most s soft does include the possibility that a 0.4% advance will eventually take place.
However the BdE maintains that its most likely scenario is the one that includes that contraction of four tenths and that it is motivated, to a large extent, by the restriction measures that the Government has applied to contain the spread of the coronavirus. “The starting point for the level of activity at the beginning of 2021 was somewhat higher than that contemplated in the central scenario published in December,” explains the Bank of Spain, which highlights that the evolution of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 was better than expected. But “in the first two months of this year, the new tightening of measures to contain the third wave of the pandemic would have had a negative impact on the dynamism of the economy.
“There has been an accumulation of negative surprises that has been partially offset by improvements in world growth forecasts,” summarized à ?? scar Arce, head of the General Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the Bank of Spain. A significant drop in vehicle registrations, bad data from affiliation or the “appreciable and general drop in Google mobility and gasoline and diesel sales”offered by Repsol’s research service, Arce specifically mentioned.
In this context, and also given the delay in part of the projects linked to European funds until 2022, the BdE forecasts that growth in 2021 will be 6%. This represents a significant reduction of eight tenths with respect to the December estimate and, furthermore, that the new projection is still further away from the official government figures. Of the almost 10% that is included in the General State Budgets and, also, of the 7% that the Vice President of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calvià ± o, increasingly defends with more intensity, knowing that the figures on which They settle Expense and income estimates are practically impossible.
Herd immunity, at the end of the year
The annual figures from the BdE are also based on a forecast that the economy will grow strongly in the second quarter of the year, as the restrictive measures disappear and the vaccination process advances. However, he rules out a normal summer campaign, and does not believe that herd immunity will be reached at the end of the same period. The Government continues to defend this position but the BdE anticipates that immunity will be achieved at the end of the year, something that is in line with the projections.
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