Our country is currently signing defense defense agreements with the USA and France, which are commented and analyzed in various ways, but mainly with a party sign.
Writes Christos S. Argyriou *
What are the positive elements of the agreements with the USA and France.
- These are two nuclear powers with a presence on all continents.
- They are two permanent members of the UN Security Council.
- These are communicating vessels between allies and partners (NATO, EU) with common, for the time being, interests.
Of course, not everything was covered with rose petals until the final signatures. Our country had started talks on the purchase of frigates with the USA as well as with France on the purchase of 18 Rafale which has already been ratified. At the same time, the conversation started about a possible purchase of frigates, which, however, could not succeed, due to the USA. The pie is distributed accordingly to the defense industry. We are upgrading 84 F-16s (USA), we have reached an agreement with the French for the Rafale, but the frigates should be American in order to avoid any imbalance with our main ally. So how did we reach an agreement with the French?
Despite the chronic and detailed processes of the Greek government, which would in any case lead, rightly, to the shielding of the country, the highly successful defense agreement with France came from scratch! Do not find it strange, this is not the first time this has happened in transnational agreements.
A few weeks ago, the $ 54 billion AUKUS defense deal between the United States, Britain and Australia for the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia came to light. But the issue was not just the agreement. It has been said and written that it was done to prevent China, but this is not the case. If in force, then the agreement would include South Korea, Japan and New Zealand would not prohibit the passage of submarines in its territorial waters. Let us not be fooled, then, by giving value to another defense agreement that aimed only at economic gain. After all, the answer was given by China itself, doing… nothing!
The real problem with AUKUS was the marginalization of France, which had already signed a defense agreement with Australia, which was canceled, angering the French to the point of renouncing diplomacy, recalling their US and Australian ambassadors. The miracle happened after the Biden-Macron talks during which the US re-evaluated the road to rebuilding confidence, essentially giving the contract for frigates in our country and of course they will strengthen their support on the Sahel line against terrorism, part of which ” established and legalized ”in Afghanistan!
Despite the concerns of the opposition, there is no possibility that our country’s armed forces will be sent to either the Sahel or the Pacific, for obvious reasons that the agreement shows without, of course, being mentioned in writing. Our country uses conjunctures in its favor, at the most appropriate time, because it is used at the same time for purposes that have nothing to do with geopolitics, but geoeconomics.
There are several conclusions from the summary I gave you.
- No transnational agreement is valid anymore, if it includes superpowers. This, of course, also applies to the agreements we have signed. We will not be the first to denounce them, for sure.
- No country, except the United States, Russia and China, not even a nuclear power, a permanent member of the UN Security Council like France, has the helm of the big decisions that concern it, in its hands, let alone those of us who believe we have grown up. our geopolitical footprint. The translation of this is that we successfully announced the problem in our area and “marketed” it.
- Pay close attention to monitoring the agreements, because we do not want to suffer that France with AUKUS. In other words, there should be no last-minute withdrawal in a period of crisis with Turkey, due to the involvement of third parties (within NATO and the EU) or a change of interests, in our absence, in the SE Mediterranean.
- I left the main point for last. If Greece is used as a base for attacks against states that have jihadist pockets, the “immunity” that we have to move freely in busy places ends.
Christos S. Argyriou is an International / Forecaster, Stratfor Partner (TX, USA)