The cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine 6 months after the invasion

Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands dead, millions displaced, and economic turmoil around the world.

Here are the main implications of the war as it enters its seventh month.

Dead

Since February 24, a total of 5,587 civilians have been recorded as killed and 7,890 injured, although the actual casualties are much higher, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) announced on August 22.

Most of those killed or injured were victims of explosive weapons, such as artillery shells, rockets and airstrikes, according to OHCHR.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzny, announced yesterday, Monday, that almost 9,000 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been killed in the war, in the first tally made public by the highest echelons of the Ukrainian forces since Russian invasion. He did not elaborate further.

Russia has not announced how many of its own soldiers have been killed.

US intelligence agencies estimate that around 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far in Ukraine and that three times that number have been wounded. So many had been killed in the ranks of the Soviet army during Moscow’s occupation of Afghanistan in 1979-1989.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in 2014 after the country’s pro-Russian president was ousted in Kiev’s Maidan Square uprising and Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, with Moscow-backed forces fighting Ukraine’s armed forces.

About 14,000 have been killed there from 2014 to the end of 2021, according to the OHCHR. Of these, 3,106 were civilians.

Misfortune

As of February 24, a third of Ukraine’s population of more than 41 million have been forced to flee their homes, in the world’s biggest displacement crisis of the current period, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Refugees (UNHCR).

Today, more than 6.6 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered in Europe. Most in Poland, Russia and Germany, according to UNHCR data.

Ukraine

In addition to the human toll, Ukraine has lost control of about 22 percent of its territory to Russia since annexing Crimea in 2014, according to Reuters calculations.

It has lost part of its coastline, its economy has been crippled and some cities have been deserted due to Russian bombing. Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 45% in 2022, according to World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.

The actual cost to Ukraine in dollars remains unclear. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal said in July that the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the war would be about $750 billion. It can be much higher.

It is also unclear how much Ukraine has spent on the war.

Russia

The war is also costly for Russia — though it does not disclose the cost, which is a state secret.

In addition to military spending, the West is trying to punish Moscow by imposing severe sanctions, which is the biggest shock to the Russian economy since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia’s central bank now forecasts that its $1.8 trillion economy will shrink by 4%-6% in 2022, down from the 8%-10% it forecast in April.

However, the impact on Russia’s economy remains large – and still not entirely clear. It has been shut out of Western financial markets, most of its oligarchs have been sanctioned, and it faces supply problems for some products, such as microchips.

Last month Russia defaulted on foreign bonds for the first time since the disastrous months following the 1917 October Revolution.

Prices

The invasion and Western sanctions on Russia have led to sharp increases in the prices of fertilizers, wheat, metals and energy, fueling both a looming food crisis and an inflationary wave in the global economy.

Russia is the world’s second largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia and the largest exporter of natural gas, wheat, nitrogen fertilizers and palladium. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, international oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2008 records.

Efforts to reduce dependence on Russian oil, gas and petroleum products – or even to cap their prices – have exacerbated the already most severe energy crisis since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s.

After Russia cut gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Germany, wholesale gas prices in Europe soared.

A full shutdown would plunge the eurozone into recession, with sharp contractions in both Germany and Italy, according to Goldman Sachs.

Development

The International Monetary Fund now forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% this year, down from 6.1% last year and significantly below its April forecast of 3.6%, its January forecast of 4.4% and in October for 4.9%.

Under a “realistic” alternative scenario, which includes a complete cutoff of Russian gas supplies to Europe by the end of the year and a further 30% cut in Russian oil exports, the IMF notes that global growth will slow to 2.6% in 2022 and 2% in 2023, with almost zero growth in Europe and the US next year.

Western Weapons

The US has provided about $9.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since February 24, which includes Stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-tank systems, 155mm howitzers and protective equipment for biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

The next biggest donor to Ukraine is Britain, which has provided £2.3 billion in military support. The European Union has agreed to provide 2.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.