The data gets worse, Italy turns red and orange

Data is deteriorating everywhere and it is an Italy mainly between orange and red that will come out of the control room on Friday. The ordinances of the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza will be signed on the same day and they will come into effect on Monday 15 March. However, the regional RTs are already known and it is clear that only two regions have yellow band numbers, Valle d’Aosta (but here the RT is at the limit) and Sicily, and only one, the Sardinia, it is white.

There are problems in hospitals throughout Italy to manage the flow of patients, intensive care is everywhere at the limit of employment.

L’indice Rt it is above 1 almost everywhere: it goes in orange from 1 upwards, with 1.25 it goes into the red range.

I’m at red risk Piedmont at 1.41 and the incidence of infections is 279 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, Lombardy (Rt between 1.28 and 1.32), Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia which has the Rt at 1.3. Emilia-Romagna is already partly red for local ordinances and should see the passage of the entire region. In Tuscany, the RT is 1.22 but there are enormous difficulties in hospitals. Campania is already red with a Rt of 1.7. Almost all the provinces of the Marche, Basilicata and Molise are already in the red. The provinces of Trento and Bolzano, Umbria and Abruzzo could pass.

Lazio, Puglia and Liguria are likely to go orange. For the capital region, however, there is also the risk of a direct passage into the red. «Our region straddles the yellow zone and the orange zone. The Rt index is around 1, as every Friday we will play it to the last decimal »said the president of Liguria Giovanni Toti. In Puglia, data from the region indicate an incidence of 222 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The Calabria is currently yellow, but has scored over 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and could go directly into the red like Lazio. Sardinia is white and at most it could return to the yellow zone.

Even the most stringent regulations should come to the government’s study. The closure seems certain, like at Christmas for Easter week, including holidays and days before holidays. More stringent criteria for entry into the red zone will be made official: it would be automatic with 250 cases per week for every 100,000 inhabitants. With current figures, that would be 30 million people.

Puglia and Campania have already decided on more restrictive measures. In Campania parks, villas and promenades are closed. In Puglia it is forbidden to stop in public places and take away drinks after 6pm on holidays and before holidays. And in Bari, shops and malls close at 7pm.

The school may already be closed in the orange zone.

Also in yellow could arrive the ban on taking away drinks after 6pm and the revocation of the possibility of visiting friends and relatives at home once a day. The hypothesis of bringing forward the curfew to 8 pm is also being discussed, while that of the lockdown at the weekend seems to move away.