Of Leonida Stergiou
The meeting of the General Council of the Financial Stability Fund is scheduled for today, which is expected to ratify the result of the negotiations between the HFSF and the private TMEDE-Ellington group, regarding the amount of their participation in the current capital increase.
A decisive factor in the decision of both parties is the assessment of the additional losses that will arise mainly from the securitization of the red loans.
The current capital increase of 240 million euros covers the estimates for capital needs under extreme conditions, as these, according to the stress tests of the Bank of Greece and the auditor of Attica Bank, do not exceed 231 million euros.
However, among the major shareholders and mainly between HFSF (68%) and TMEDE (14%) and Ellington, the question arose as to who and how would cover any new needs after the current capital increase.
According to sources close to the developments, the most probable scenario is that Ellington will enter the share capital of Attica Bank through TMEDE and in the second year, after a more detailed valuation, a new capital increase will be made, so that the private investor can increase his percentage, as published by Capital.gr.
From the current distribution of shares, ie HFSF 68%, TMEDE 14% and EFKA 10%, and given that all major shareholders will take part in the capital increase at least up to their percentage, a possible scenario shows the consortium acquiring a share between 22 % and 33%.
This practically means that the EFKA remains in its percentage and the HFSF is limited accordingly. Also, an important factor is the attitude of micro-investors, ie shareholders with a percentage of less than 5%.
Under the terms of the AMK they can take part up to their percentage, but due to the capital changes that have taken place (with the rights of the deferred tax, the creation of a reserve and the issuance of new shares and rights for the AMK with a ratio of about 1 new to 49 old shares), have suffered significant losses.
Hypothetically, if no small shareholder participates in the AMK, then the HFSF percentage will rise above 73%, which is not desirable.
Therefore, investment circles estimate that the most probable scenario envisages the participation of the private sector with more than 60 million euros in this phase, raising the percentage of the private investor between 20-30%.
Then and most likely within the first half of 2022 there will be a new capital increase, between 100-170 million euros, where the private sector will become the main shareholder with the highest percentage.
In terms of timing, this is as follows:
08.12.2021: Last day of exercising the pre-emptive rights
10.12.2021 Distribution and disposal of any unallocated New Shares – Certification of payment of the Share Capital Increase – Announcement to cover the Share Capital Increase
13.12.2021: Approval of the ATHEX for the listing of the New Shares – Announcement for the start date of the trading of the New Shares
14.12.2021 Commencement of trading of New Shares
Read also:
– How will the AMK and the privatization of Attica Bank be done
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Source From: Capital
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