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The deals and numbers the bankers see for the next day

By Leonidas Stergiou

The widespread side effects of the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine can not be underestimated. Inflation derailment alone is enough to erode growth and test investor confidence in the central government ‘s next moves. And this with any consequence on the disposable income, the consumption, the exports, the fiscal figures, the conditions in the capital and money markets.

However, there are those who see the glass half full. They would see it as full if they did not admit that the exogenous -mainly − negative conjuncture comes at a time when the Greek economy was entering a new upward cycle. According to Greek bankers, the big investment plans and the record of foreign direct investment inflows in the last two years, and especially in 2021, have a long-term horizon and have bet on an upward cycle of the Greek economy for the coming years.

The deals and numbers the bankers see for the next day

The preparation

In other words, these are planned and strategic moves, which began to mature in 2021 and most of them will take place in 2022 and in the coming years. Big investments and big financing require preparation time and maturity, as bank executives explain. A deal does not close today and the investment and financing is given the next day. Numbers and official business announcements confirm this preparation:

First, raising capital through corporate bonds of 4.2 billion euros and share capital increases of 0.5 billion euros in 2021, not counting the corresponding moves by banks that almost double the total amount (in order to finance future investments).

Secondly, record foreign direct investment inflows of 5.4 billion euros in 2021, of which 1.2 billion euros were invested in the Greek residential real estate market, according to BoG data.

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Thirdly, 76 deals (exports, mergers) worth 4.3 billion euros were made in 2021, while it was announced (2021 and 2022) and others that will take place in 2022, worth 6.3 billion, according to PwC. It, in its report, estimates an additional 2.3 billion from ongoing privatizations in 2022.

Fourth, Through the Recovery Fund, contracts are closed from February onwards, which will be financed through bank loans, 1 billion euros by the end of the year. Bank disbursements are estimated at € 250 million in the last quarter of 2022. Therefore, the remaining € 750 million will be disbursed in 2023, when those for the 2022 investment contracts are added. Therefore, there will be an increasing flow. funding.

Fifth, Bank lending to large companies, due to launched and new business deals, will increase this year to more than 6.5 billion euros and may reach 8.5 billion euros. Inflation is increasing, especially for energy companies, but also for other sectors, due to higher costs of raw materials and stocks. Loans to small businesses may exceed the € 1.6 billion target, due to higher accuracy obligations and a general increase in demand for investment and financing from larger companies (suppliers, customers, contractors, etc.).

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Sixth, Sales of non-performing loans, including their securitizations and sales in the primary and secondary markets, will exceed 10 billion euros in 2022 (book value).

Business agreements closing in 2022

Most may have been announced in 2021 or early 2022, but the big deals take time to complete. And it is not only the recent and big agreements, such as those of Motor Oil – Ellactor and Cosmos Aluminum – ETEM. The “pending” concerns almost all sectors, according to a report by PwC, which confirms the information from the banks for a large volume of deals that are either being launched or are being prepared to be announced later.

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Banks and insurance

The financial services industry is expected to have the largest trading volume in 2022. The acquisition of 49% of Viva Wallet’s share by JP Morgan will be completed after the approval of the agreement by the regulators, with the total value of the transaction estimated at 1.02 billion euros. In the field of insurance services, NN completed the acquisition of Metlife Greece at the end of January 2022, while Allianz announced the acquisition of European Loyalty, with the price reaching 207 million. In the field of cards and electronic transactions, Alpha Bank grants the 51% of Alpha Services and Holdings in Italian Nexi for 157 million, Piraeus Bank lends 100% of Piraeus Bank Merchant Acquiring Business to Euronet Worldwide for 300 million, National Bank lends 51% of NBG Merchant Acquiring Business to Evo Payments against 158 ​​million, while Eurobank 80% of Eurobank Merchant Acquiring Business in Worldwide. The concession of National Insurance to the CVC fund is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. The total value of the sector’s transactions is estimated to exceed 2.4 billion euros.

Food and drinks

At the beginning of 2022, the acquisition of Chipita by the American Mondelez International was completed, with the acquisition price exceeding 1.6 billion. Coca-Cola HBC completed in mid-January 2022 the acquisition of 52.7% of Coca-Cola Bottling Company of Egypt (CCBCE) for 259 million. The acquisition of the remaining 42% was completed at the end of the same month, with the price estimated at 123 million. Dardanel Onentas Gida Sanayi AS acquired G. Kallimanis SA for 6 million. of the companies Alpha Distributions, Inkat, Delivery.gr and E-table by Delivery Hero await the approval of the Competition Commission. The total price of the transactions is estimated to exceed 2 billion.

Fun

By the end of 2022, the acquisition of OPAP by Allwyn Entertainment is expected to be completed for 327.4 million.

Telecommunications and transport

The acquisition of Wind Hellas by United Group was completed in mid-January 2022, with a price of around 1 billion. The American Meta Platforms, parent company of Facebook, signed the acquisition of 100% of the Greek startup Accusonus, with the price to The Greek company Mantis was acquired by the German Ecovium for 60 million, while EOS Capital Partners proceeded with the acquisition of the companies Archive Archive SA. and mod IT Services GmbH. Other industry deals to date include the acquisition of CSA by Epsilon Net, Logon by Entersoft and Regate by Softone. The total value of the acquisitions of the sector is expected to exceed 1 billion in 2022.

Industry

At the beginning of 2022, the acquisition of Halyps by the Hercules group was completed. The final decision of the CoF for the transfer of Skaramaga Shipyards from ETAD and HSY to Milina Enterprises Company Limited is expected to be announced in the coming months, with a total price of 62.5 million. The Greek startup Pollfish was acquired earlier this year by American company Prodege.

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Real Estate

In the third or fourth quarter of 2022, the transaction of Alpha Bank Skyline project will be completed, where Alpha Urban Real Estate will be transformed into a company with the sole object of providing real estate management and operation services. Alpha Urban Real Estate will spin off and sell its real estate portfolio to an unlisted company of the Alpha Bank group, which will be the special vehicle (SPV) of the transaction for Skyline. Meanwhile, Piraeus Bank agreed to acquire 52% of Trastor shares, with the agreed price amounting to 98 million, while 100% of Lamda Ilida goes to Prodea Investments.

Energy

The Swedish company Metacon AB announced the acquisition of the Greek Helbio for 11 million. The Italian Eni in turn entered the Greek photovoltaic market, acquiring the Greek Solar Konzept, while Hellenic Petroleum acquired Tanagra Energy.

Privatizations

The total revenues from privatizations for 2022 are estimated to exceed 2.5 billion euros, since the concession of Egnatia Odos to GEK Terna and Egis Projects is already at an advanced stage. The total value of the concession is estimated at 2.3 billion, of which almost 1.5 billion are expected to be paid in 2022.

At the same time, the HRDH is proceeding with the development of the regional ports and marinas, the concession of many is expected to be completed within 2022. Negotiations for the concession of the ports of Alexandroupolis and Kavala are already in a mature phase, while the concession of the ports of H and Heraklion. For 2022, also revenues are expected from DEPA Infrastructure (476 million euros), the second installment of Elliniko (167 million euros) and from projects that are already or are expected to enter a tender process, such as Attiki Odos, regional ports and marinas (Volos, Pylos, Lefkimmi and Megayacht marina of Corfu), as well as other HRDH properties, such as tourist properties with thermal springs.

Source: Capital

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