The difficult path that Ukraine must follow to join the EU

The European Commission today recommended formalization of Ukraine as a candidate country, in a policy shift brought about by the Russian invasion.

The Commission made the same recommendation for Moldova, but with regard to Georgia it stressed that it was not ready to be granted candidate status.

All three countries have Russian-backed separatist regions.

Here are some of the obstacles that the former Soviet states must overcome in order to join the EU.

Time

While the recommendation marks an EU strategic turn to the east in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kyiv is likely to take years to join the 27-nation EU, if it does.

Ukraine will be called upon to carry out economic and political reforms, and it is unlikely that the Union will accept a country at war.

In times of peace, Poland, Ukraine’s neighboring country with a similar population and communist history, took 10 years from applying for membership in 1994 to its actual accession in 2004.

Turkey, on the other hand, received official candidate status in 1999, but currently has no prospects of accession.

Accession talks stalled as ties between Ankara and the European Union deteriorated, including the crackdown on critics of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the 2016 coup attempt, and other examples of the EU seeing its democracy and state eroded.

The six Balkan countries’ candidacies for EU membership have also been complicated in recent years by issues such as immigration, organized crime and mutual recognition disputes in the region.

Process and reforms

EU leaders will discuss the Commission’s proposal for Ukraine’s candidacy during a summit in Brussels on 23-24 June. Everyone must agree in order for the status to be formally granted.

Once that happens, Kyiv will begin negotiations to align its laws with those of the EU.

“Ukraine has already implemented about 70% of EU rules and standards. However, important work remains to be done for the rule of law, the oligarchs, the fight against corruption and fundamental rights,” said Commissioner Ursula. von der Layen.

Moldova – another former communist country now seeking to move away from Moscow’s sphere of influence – is “on a real path to reform, anti-corruption and Europe,” von der Leyen said, although she still has a long way to go. to go through “.

Georgia, which waged a short-lived war with Russia in 2008, must overcome political polarization in order to advance the reforms needed to move towards EU membership, the commission president said.

For all three countries, the Commission recommended the establishment of independent judiciary as well as quality public services, the fight against organized crime and the over-influence of acquired interests in public life.

Political Will

When and if all this is done, Ukraine’s accession will have to be approved by all the governments of the EU Member States and the European Parliament, which means that the process can always find obstacles and freeze in the political arena.

The Netherlands, France and Germany are among the EU countries that oppose the entry of new members in recent years.

But Kyiv won the crucial support of Paris and Berlin – the Union’s top powers – when their leaders declared in Kyiv on Thursday that Ukraine belonged to the “European family”.

Earlier in the day, the Dutch government announced it would support Ukraine’s status as an EU candidate, calling the European Commission’s recommendation a “smart compromise”. “The country still has a lot of work to do,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told a weekly news conference.

The new geopolitical momentum since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 marks a leap forward for Kyiv on its path to EU membership – without determining the final outcome.

The last major EU enlargement was in 2004, when eight former communist countries joined the east – including the Baltic states, Poland and Slovenia. Romania and Bulgaria followed in 2007.

Croatia was the last to join in 2013, but the Union has since lost one, when Britain in 2020 became the first country to leave the EU.

Source: AMPE