- The dollar remains depressed near long -term minimums, unable to return above 97.00.
- The weak ADP data published on Wednesday increased the hopes of fed cuts and limited the recovery of the US dollar.
- A moderate optimism after the commercial agreement between the US and Vietnam has added pressure on the US dollar, considered safe refuge.
The dollar (DXY) index, which measures the value of the dollar against the six most negotiated currencies in the world, continues to range below the 97.00 area, unable to take off at least several years, after having lost more than 2% during the last two weeks.
The recovery attempts on Wednesday were limited in the 97.10 area, a support level at the end of June, which has now become resistance, since the dollar backed back again after an ADP employment report in the US that increased hopes of imminent fed cuts.
The employment data of ADP disappoint and increase the hopes of flexibility of the Fed
ADP data revealed the first net employment loss in more than two years, with a net loss of 33,000 private payrolls in June, compared to market expectations of an increase of 95,000 and after an increase reviewed down 29,000 in May.
A firm Powell and solid employment data support the USD.
Beyond that, Trump’s announcement on a commercial agreement with Vietnam, whose details are scarce, increased the hopes of more agreements of this type before the deadline of July 9 and increased the pressure on the US dollar, considered safe refuge.
However, investors are cautious when making directional bets on the US dollar before the US non -agricultural payroll report, which will be published later today. Payrolls in the US are expected to have increased by 110,000 in June after an increase of 139,000 in May. Another disappointing report today could confirm the expectations of fed cuts in July and September and send the US dollar to new minimums.
Economic indicator
ADP Employment Report
The employment data is prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. It is an estimate of the change in the number of people employed in the private sector, non -agricultural, of the United States, and is published monthly. A positive number implies that the private sector recorded an increase in workers’ payroll, while a negative one, a reduction. The figures above expectations are usually positive for the dollar, while those below them are negative.
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Last publication:
LIE JUL 02, 2025 12:15
Frequency:
Monthly
Current:
-33k
Dear:
95k
Previous:
37K
Fountain:
ADP Research Institute
Operators often consider that ADP employment figures, the largest payroll provider in the United States, are the omen of the statement of the office of labor statistics on non -agricultural payroll (usually published two days later), due to the correlation between the two. The overlap of both series is quite high, but in individual months, discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason why currency operators follow this report is the same as with the NFP: a vigorous and persistent growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures and, with them, the probability that the Fed raises interest rates. The real figures that exceed consensus tend to be bulls for the USD.
Economic indicator
Non -agricultural payrolls
The most important result contained in the report on the employment situation is the monthly change in non -agricultural payrolls published by the US Department of Labor. The report publishes the employment creation estimates of the previous month and reviews in the data of the previous two months. Monthly changes in payrolls can be very volatile and the publication of this report generates high volatility in the dollar. A result superior to the market consensus is bullish for the dollar, while a result lower than expectations is bassist.
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Next publication:
JU JUL 03, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Dear:
110K
Previous:
139K
Fountain:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The United States Monthly Employment Report is considered the most important economic indicator for foreign exchange operators. Published the first Friday following the informed month, the change in the number of employees is closely related to the general performance of the economy and is monitored by those responsible for the formulation of policies. Full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve and considers the evolution of the labor market by establishing its policies, which affects the currencies. Despite several advanced indicators that shape estimates, non -agricultural payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. The real figures that exceed consensus tend to be bulls for the USD.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
