The Dollar soars to seven-week highs against the Mexican Peso after good data from the US.

• USD/MXN rises to a seven-week high of 17.10 after the Wall Street open.
• The Dollar recovers again with the good US data on unemployment benefit claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
• The IMF revises Mexico's growth forecasts downwards in 2024.

USD/MXN began Thursday's trading session by retreating to a daily low of 16.92 in the European morning. After Wall Street opened, the pair has shot up to a seven-week high of 17.10. At the time of writing, the pair is trading above 17.09, gaining 0.77% daily.

Dollar gains momentum with US mid-level data

The Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered after the good data published today in the United States, returning above the 106.00 point zone to reach a high of the day at 106.12.

First of all, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index has shot up to 15.5 points in April from 3.2 in March, reaching its highest level in two years and notably exceeding the 1.5 points expected by the market.

On the other hand, the weekly unemployment benefit claims They remained at 212,000 in the week of April 12, improving the 215,000 expected by experts.

Finally, the Dollar remains supported by the Fed's continued tight policy until data confirms a solid decline in inflation. The CME Group's FedWatch tool sets the possibility of a cut in June at only 15%, placing the chances of this happening in July at 36.6%. The market points to September as the date of the first rate cut, with a 45.8% probability.

The IMF lowers Mexico's growth forecasts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its global growth forecasts this week. For Mexico, the entity revised downwards its growth forecast for 2024, reducing it to 2.4% compared to 2.7% in January's forecasts. For 2025, the Mexican GDP forecast was reduced to 1.4% from the previous 1.5%.

USD/MXN operators will be awaiting Mexican retail sales data for the month of February tomorrow, Friday, after they fell 0.8% year-on-year in January.

USD/MXN Price Levels

The one-hour chart continues to show a clear bullish trend for USD/MXN. The pair will encounter a small hurdle in its northward movement at 17.11, which was the highest level on February 27, 28 and 29. Above, the path may clear towards the 2024 top reached in January at 17.38.

On the downside, around 16.54/16.55 will mark a support zone since it is the bottom of this week. Below, a major containment zone awaits at the nearly nine-year low reached on April 9 at 16.26.