UOB Group currency strategists note that EUR / USD could rise and revisit the 1.1945 level In the next weeks.
Key Comments:
24 hour view: “Yesterday we held the view that there is room for the EUR / USD to ‘test 1.1925’. Our expectation did not fully materialize when EUR / USD rose to 1.1919. The bullish momentum has improved slightly, but although the EUR / USD could continue to advance, a clear break of the main resistance at 1.1945 is unlikely (next resistance is 1.1985). On the downside, a breakout of 1.1875 (minor support at 1.1890) would indicate that the current bullish pressure has eased. “
Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from yesterday (April 12, EUR / USD at 1.1895) still stands. As highlighted, the bullish momentum has subsided, but there is still a chance that the EUR / USD will move higher to 1.1945 (we expected a move to 1.1945 from last Wednesday). EUR / USD closed relatively firm in the US session (1.1909, + 0.11%) but shorter-term momentum remains lackluster. That being said, EUR / USD could break above 1.1945, but the next resistance at 1.1985 is unlikely to enter the scene. A break of 1.1850 (the ‘strong support’ level was at 1.1830 yesterday) would indicate that the bullish risk has dissipated. “
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