- The Dow Jones made a bullish thrust to the 44,000 region on Friday.
- The shares are increasing while investors bet on US trade agreements.
- Operators expect three Fed fees cuts by the end of 2025, starting in September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground on Friday, driven by a combination of investors’ expectations that the US will find a way to ensure commercial agreements that avoid their own siege of threatening tariffs, and the increase in expectations of more fees of fees by the Federal Reserve (FED) by the end of the year.
In an interview with Bloomberg News, the US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, declared that a “framework” on the commercial terms between the US and China had ended. The Secretary of Commerce Lutnick continued to affirm that the Trump administration is expected to reach agreements with 10 important commercial partners. However, a White House official clarified Trump’s own comments on the matter made on Thursday, stating that China had agreed “an additional understanding of an framework to implement the Geneva agreement.”
A clear communication on trade remains a challenging objective for the Trump administration. In addition to the announcement of the Secretary of Commerce Lutnick, US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, declared that the Trump administration expects around 15 trade agreements in the next few days. At the same time, President Trump himself proudly pointed to the reporters on Friday that he was waiting for five to seven commercial agreements.
Never one to let a good day pass without being ruined, President Donald Trump expressed his anger to Canada on Friday, announcing through the social networks that the US would completely retire from commercial negotiations with the Canadian delegates. President Trump incorrectly cited dairy tariffs that are part of his own USMCA commercial agreement, which he negotiated during his first term to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Then he announced a plan to impose tariffs on Canada within the next seven days.
Read more news about actions: The S&P 500 reaches a new historical maximum despite the increase in inflation
According to the Fedwatch of the CME tool, the rates markets now expect a series of three cuts of sequential fees of the Fed until the end of 2025, with the first widely expected rates cut in September. Rate operators are valuing almost 90% probabilities of a rate cut of a quarter point on September 17, with more than 80% probabilities of an additional rate cut on October 29 and around 60% probabilities of a third cut of a quarter quarter on December 10.
The markets are ignoring a new increase in consumer inflation pressures after inflation figures of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) were higher than expected on Friday. The basic PCE index of May accelerated to 2.7% year -on -year, while the figure of the previous period was checked slightly 2.6%.
Adding more bad news, US personal income contracted in 0.4% in May, the greatest drop in monthly income since October of 2021. Personal expense also contracted 0.1% in May, with both indicators of income and expenses widely below their forecasts.
Investors are more focused on consumer feeling and inflation expectations; The feeling of the consumer of the University of Michigan (UOM) rose to 60.7 in June, increasing slightly. The 1 -year inflation expectations of the UOM also decreased slightly, falling to 5.0%.
Dow Jones price forecast
Friday’s bullish inclination saw the Dow Jones industrial average make a new attempt in the 44,000 area, a level that the main stock market index has not touched since March. Despite a certain last minute hesitation that saw Dow Jones go back to the 43,500 area, the week is ready to finish in a firm note, with the Dow quoting more than 3% above the closing of the previous week.
The bullish impulse continues to maintain the prices of the increasing DJ, but the overcompricated technical oscillators are showing firm warning signs that a decline downward could be on its way. You cannot rule out a short -term setback to the 50 -day exponential (EMA) mobile average about 42,200.
Dow Jones daily graphics
Dow Jones Faqs
The Dow Jones Industrial Avenge, one of the oldest stock market indexes in the world, consists of the 30 most negotiated values ​​in the United States. The index is weighted by the price instead of capitalization. It is calculated by adding the prices of the values ​​that compose it and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, also founder of the Wall Street Journal. In recent years it has been criticized for not being sufficiently representative, since it only follows 30 companies, unlike broader rates such as S&P 500.
There are many factors that promote the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. The main one is the added performance of the companies that compose it, revealed in the quarterly reports of business benefits. The American and world macroeconomic data also contribute, since they influence investor confidence. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (FED), also influences the DJia, since it affects the cost of credit, on which many companies depend largely. Therefore, inflation can be a determining factor, as well as other parameters that influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve.
Dow’s theory is a method to identify the main trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Avenge (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and just follow the trends in which both move in the same direction. The volume is a confirmation criterion. The theory uses elements of maximum and minimum analysis. Dow’s theory raises three phases of the trend: accumulation, when intelligent money begins to buy or sell; Public participation, when the general public joins the trend; and distribution, when intelligent money abandons the trend.
There are several ways to operate with the DJ. One of them is to use ETF that allow investors to negotiate the DJ as a single value, instead of having to buy shares of the 30 companies that compose it. An outstanding example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avenge ETF (day). Future contracts on the DJ allow the specular operators about the future value of the index and the options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Investment funds allow investors to buy a part of a diversified portfolio of DJ values, which provides exposure to global index.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
