The EUR operates stable at the bottom of 1.16 – Scotiabank

The euro (EUR) is entering the American session of Wednesday in front of the US dollar (USD) and trying to stabilize in the low 1.16, the FX Chief Strategies of Scotiabank, Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The markets consider the risks of the FED/ECB and the vulnerability of a considerable length in EUR

“The prospects for the relative policy of the central banks have moved something against the EUR, since the markets have softened their expectations of relaxation of the Fed after the US CPI. UU. On Tuesday. For the ECB, the markets are neutral for the meeting next Thursday and do not provide changes in the policy. This last change in the foundations of the Eur leaves it vulnerable to a setback, since the position is vulnerable to a setback Alcista speculative has recently spread to the upper end of its historical range. “

“The option market reveals a premium erosion for protection against the EUR and 3 -month risk reversals seem to be ready to enter negative territory (valuing a premium by puts). Commercial data revealed a stronger surplus than expected for May, and conversations between the USA to the use of its ‘anti-coercion instrument’, which could include the imposition of taxes on US companies. ”

“The recess of the EUR has been remarkable and has delivered a considerable loss of impulse. The RSI is now around 50, a neutral reading. The upward trend of several months has not yet been broken, but we are worried about the short -term risk of greater weakness while we are looking for a potential support in the maximum of April 21 (1,1573) and the 50 -day mobile average (1,1484). of 1,1680/1,1700. “

Source: Fx Street

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