- The EUR/USD remains firm above 1,1600 while the US dollar index (DXY) goes below 98.00.
- The weak Empire State index of manufacturing deepens the pressure on the dollar; The salary growth in the Eurozone slows down, giving the ECB margin to remain cautious.
- The markets will be attentive to US retail sales and the FED policy decision on Wednesday; The new IPCA data of the Eurozone and the ECB speakers will also be in the focus in the middle of the week.
The euro (EUR) is rising against the US dollar (USD) at the beginning of the week, bouncing the risk fall of Friday caused by hostilities between Israel and Iran. With the less nervous markets and the appetite for the US dollar decreasing, the EUR/USD torque earns traction as the US dollar index (DXY) goes back, with operators reducing risk aversion bets and reacting to surprisingly weak manufacturing data of New York.
The EUR/USD is around 1,1600 at the time of writing, reversing from a maximum of 1,1616 with a daily gain of approximately 0.70% to quote about 1,1594. The torque is maintained slightly below the peak last week in 1,1631, its highest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six main currencies, continues to descend, going back below the 98.00 brand to quote around 97.75, close to its lowest level in three years.
New data from the New York Federal Reserve added to the dollar problems after the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -16.0 in June from -9.2 in May, failing in market forecasts of -5.5. This was the weakest reading since the minimum of two years in -20.0, pointing out a deeper contraction in manufacturing activity and feeding concerns about a slowdown in the regional economic impulse.
Adding to the euro background, new Eurostat data showed that wages throughout the eurozone increased 3.4% year -on -year in the first quarter of 2025, slowing down from an increase of 4.1% in the previous quarter. This marks the weakest pace of salary growth since the third quarter of 2022, offering some relief to the European Central Bank (ECB) while maintaining a cautious and waiting approach to inflation in cooling and an impulse of mediocre growth.
Reflecting this cautious tone, the Governing Council member of the ECB, Joachim Nagel, urged the caution in his Monday speech at the Frankfurt Summit, saying that the bank should not rule out a greater relief or commit to a pause in the cuts of fees, given the persistent uncertainties. Although inflation remains close to the target, he emphasized a meeting approach by meeting – especially in the light of geopolitical risks linked to the Middle East – and warned that committing himself to a path could now go wrong.
Looking ahead, the markets will focus on the US retail sales data on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve Policy (FED) on Wednesday, without changes in the expected rates but with a very observed guide. On the side of the euro, new eurozone inflation data (IPCA) is expected for the same day, along with comments from ECB officials such as Knot, Nagel and Villeroy, which could offer more clues about the path of the rates.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. The euro was the strongest currency against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.46% | -0.26% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.82% | -0.93% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.26% | -0.23% | -0.47% | 0.38% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.17% | -0.32% | -0.55% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.79% | -0.96% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.54% | -0.72% | 0.12% | |
| Aud | 0.82% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.79% | 0.54% | -0.23% | 0.62% | |
| NZD | 0.93% | 0.47% | 0.55% | 0.96% | 0.72% | 0.23% | 0.85% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | -0.38% | -0.29% | 0.16% | -0.12% | -0.62% | -0.85% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
