The former economic brain of Ciudadanos charges against the Government Budget Project for 2021. Toni Roldan has prepared a report for Esade in which it does not give credibility to the forecasts, or to the income and criticizes that the expenses include raising salaries for officials, in line with the Bank of Spain: “The macroeconomic picture in which the government bases the budgets is overly optimistic, both in its forecast of execution of European funds and in its forecast on the evolution of the pandemic. As a consequence, at EsadeEcPol we estimate that the economic growth of the coming year it will be slightly higher than half of what the Government expects, closer to 6% than 10% “.
“The salaries of civil servants will rise above the price level. In a context of extremely high indebtedness and in which large sectors of the population have been exposed to unprecedented economic vulnerability, economic transfers to the most protected jobs with relatively high incomes they do not seem the most adequate to reduce inequalities “, he argues.
It also warns that the expected increase for pensioners implies some 5,000 million that “en a context of negative inflation “it would be its” biggest increase in purchasing power since 2015. “
In the report signed by Roldan with Ãngel MartÃnez, especially chills government enthusiasm with European funds: “In a more realistic, albeit favorable, scenario, assuming that 50% of the funds were executed (and not 100%, which is what the Government estimates) , the impact on the growth of European transfers in 2021 will be half of the 2.6 points estimated by the Government “.
Esade analysts join the general skepticism with the collection forecasts of the Minister of Finance, MariÂa Jesus Montero: “Regarding revenue, even in an optimistic scenario of strong economic growth, at EsadeEcPol we expect, in line with Airef estimates, that the government raise about two out of every three euros of what you estimate you will raise as a result of the tax increases, about 4,000 million instead of the more than 6,000 million more that it hopes to collect “.
He criticizes that in public spending they also increase very significantly, “items not directly related to the pandemic. Current spending increases 30%”. It does grant that some investments will help boost productivity, such as improvements in science, education, digitization or sustainable technologies, “but if they are not accompanied by structural reforms, improvements will be limited.”
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