- The GBP/USD is quoted in 1,3456, with a fall of 0.07%, after the fall of intermensual 2.7% in retail sales of the United Kingdom in May.
- The DXY remains close to weekly maximums while the US considers revoking chips exemptions for allies linked to China.
- The merchants are attentive to the data of the GDP of the United Kingdom and the U.S. underlying PCE next week in the Mixed Fed Signals.
The sterling pound records minimal losses during the North American session, after the retail sales data of the United Kingdom disappoint investors, while the US dollar recovers some land. Currently, GBP/USD is quoted at 1,3456, with a 0.07%drop.
The pound slides as the data of the United Kingdom disappoint and the feeling of risk deteriorates due to the threat of US chips exemptions and concerns about the inflation of the Fed
The feeling of the market became slightly negative when the news agencies revealed that “USA could revoke exemptions for allies with semiconductor plants in China,” Bloomberg reported. This would typically support the dollar, which, according to the US dollar index (DXY), is quoted with minimum losses of 0.10% in 98.62, but prepares for weekly profits of more than 0.57%.
The data in the United States reveal that the economy is slowing down, as indicated by the latest manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed in June, which fell to -4, without changes since May but worse than the estimated contraction of -1.
Meanwhile, the FED monetary policy report recently revealed that there are early signs that tariffs are contributing to greater inflation. However, its complete impact has not yet been reflected in the data. The report added that current policy is well positioned and that financial stability is resistant in the midst of high uncertainty.
The report contrasted with the comments of the Governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, who said that the Fed could cut interest rates as soon as in July.
In the United Kingdom, retail sales registered their worst monthly drop since 2023, falling -2.7% intermennsual in May, exceeding the forecasts of a contraction of -0.5% and the growth of 1.7% of April. The report followed the decision of the Bank of England (BOE) to maintain unchanged fees, in what was perceived as a Dovish decision, with a 6-3 vote.
The markets had discounted a probability close to 60% that the BOE would reduce rates at the August meeting.
Fountain: Prime Market Terminal
Next week, the United Kingdom economic calendar and the USA.
The United Kingdom calendar will include speeches of members of the BOE, the PMI Flash of Global S&P and the figures of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025. On the other side of the ocean, the US calendar will include the PMI flash, housing data, consumer confidence, speeches of the Fed, Fed speeches, GDP figures of the GDP of the first quarter, requests for durable goods and the publication of the latest inflation data of the underlying PCE.
GBP/USD price forecast: technical perspective
The GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias but is limited by 1,3500 and the 20 -day SMA in 1,3515. Although the impulse has become bullish, as shown in the relative force index (RSI), a daily closure below the maximum of June 19, 1,3469 would open the door to a higher decline.
The key support is found in 1,3450, 1,3400 near the 50 -day SMA. On the other hand, the bullies would point to 1,3550 if they recover 1,3500 and the 20 -day SMA. This would pave the way to test the annual maximum in 1,3631.
LIBRA ESTERLINA PRICE THIS WEEK
The lower table shows the percentage of sterling pound (GBP) compared to the main currencies this week. Libra sterling was the strongest currency against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.73% | 0.92% | 1.10% | 0.37% | 0.79% | 0.70% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | 0.44% | 0.74% | 0.95% | 0.33% | 0.63% | 0.54% | |
| GBP | -0.73% | -0.44% | 0.31% | 0.50% | -0.11% | 0.18% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.92% | -0.74% | -0.31% | 0.17% | -0.85% | -0.50% | -0.63% | |
| CAD | -1.10% | -0.95% | -0.50% | -0.17% | -0.65% | -0.31% | -0.40% | |
| Aud | -0.37% | -0.33% | 0.11% | 0.85% | 0.65% | 0.29% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.79% | -0.63% | -0.18% | 0.50% | 0.31% | -0.29% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.09% | 0.63% | 0.40% | -0.20% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the sterling pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the GBP (base)/USD (quotation).
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
