By George Lampiris
A good and a bad scenario are predicted by data of the measurement company, NielsenIQ for the Greek market of essential goods sold by the supermarkets.
More specifically, sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), which are available in Greek supermarkets during 2022, will show a marginally negative trend at the level of 0.3%, according to a forecast by NielsenIQ, taking into account market data such as these are valid today. However, this drop in sales could reach as much as 2.6%, in the event that prices increase further, both in supermarkets and in other key sectors of goods and services, which will further limit consumption. This capture was made at the annual presentation of the measurement company, Shopper Trends 2022, which records the market picture during the current period and during 2021.
Based on the presented data, the highest negative sales trend is predicted to be presented this year by home care products with -3.1%, personal hygiene products with -1.8%, while food and beverages appear to be marginally positive with 0.3%. NielsenIQ bases this forecast on a first scenario that takes into account the fact that the rest of 2022 will develop with a similar macroeconomic framework compared to the existing one and with an inflation of 1.5% – 1.6% for basket of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
The second scenario with new bigger increases and a decrease in sales by 2.6%
Nielsen has also implemented a second scenario that predicts that the image we currently have ahead of us will be even more negative, with sharper downward trends for fast-moving consumer goods sold in the country’s supermarkets and a drop in total FMCG sales to it even reaches 2.6%. In this case, the assessment sees as the main reason the even greater increase in the prices of goods – compared to now – in combination with the increase in prices for other goods and services in Greece. This will force consumers to limit their spending on supermarkets as much as possible.
Based on the second scenario, Nielsen bases its forecast, based on additional inflation that will rise to the level of 3%. For both scenarios the confidence interval (deviation rate) according to NielsenIQ is ± 1% for the total basket of fast-moving consumer goods available in supermarkets. Respectively for the three major major categories of goods – food and beverages, personal hygiene items, home care items – the confidence interval at ± 1.5%.
In the case of the second scenario, the biggest drop in 2022 is expected to be recorded by home care products by 5.3%, personal hygiene products by 4% and food and beverages by 2%.
At the 4.2% the increases of the two months January – February 2022 – The previous increases
According to data presented by NielsenIQ for the months of January – February 2022 compared to a year ago, it amounted to 4.2%. It was preceded by a 2.1% price increase in the fourth quarter of 2021, and another by 1.6% in the third quarter of last year.
Examining the categories of goods that showed the largest increase in prices, personal care and hygiene products in the two months January – February, appreciation by 4.9%, food and beverages by 4.1% and home care products by 3, 9%.
Products with the largest increases January – February 2022 (compared to the two months 2021)
Edible oils: 29.8%
Olive oil: 20.6%
Soups: 15.3%
Adult diapers: 11.5%
Emollients: 11.1%
Products with reduced prices during the months January – February 2022 (compared to the two months 2021)
Peanut butter: -2.8%
Bleaching agents: -2.8%
Tahini: -3.3%
Hand disinfectants: -6.3%
Halva: -6.8%
The profile of the Greek consumer
According to data presented at the same time by Vivi Papadopoulou, Client Delivery Leader Greece of NielsenIQ, outlining the profile of Greek consumers during 2021, the average consumer visited 2.5 different chains, at similar levels to 2020. But at the same time 6 in 10 consumers visited up to 2 different chains. The percentage of those who choose only one chain appears at the same time increased, from 15% in 2019 to 25% in 2021.
In the three largest chains, Sklavenitis, AB and Lidl 60% of the visits from the Greeks
What also emerges is that 60% of the stores visited by consumers belong to the three major chains in a row, Sklavenitis, AB Vassilopoulos and Lidl. The average monthly expenditure in 2021 was 292 euros, compared to 290 euros, 277 euros in 2019 and 267 euros in 2018. Greece is below the European average, which rose to 320 euros in 2021.
Source: Capital
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