The heads of the 4 systemic banks estimate that the Greek economy is holding up despite the challenges

The heads of the 4 systemic banks estimate that the Greek economy is holding up despite the challenges

The presidents of the four systemic banks reach the common conclusion that the Greek economy maintains its momentum, despite the new serious challenges at the international and European level, in their interventions from the stage of the annual general meetings that took place, pointing out, however, that there should be no complacency and that everything will depend on the developments on the major fronts that are underway.

They also pointed out that the banking system now having single-digit rates of non-performing loans, strong capital adequacy and sufficient liquidity, combined with the prospects created by the Recovery Fund, is financing businesses and households with the aim of creating the new model of the Greek economy.

They also emphasized the issues of corporate governance, digital transformation and green financing, areas where Greek banks have made great progress.

The assessments of the presidents of the banks acquire even greater value as in their long career they have passed through critical positions, which, combined with their high academic level, lends particular weight to their positions.

The president of Piraeus Bank Giorgos Khandjinikolou said that at the beginning of 2022, the prospects for growth in our country were the best we have seen for many years. But the invasion of Ukraine created new conditions, especially in the global energy market, with consequences for both short-term and possibly long-term growth prospects. Inflationary pressures, mainly due to the energy crisis, and the rise in interest rates that followed to curb them, are a drag on growth, while uncertainty about the duration of the war and its effects negatively affects consumption and business activity .

At this stage, it is premature to assess the long-term impact, both on the international and domestic economy and society. However, as the president of Piraeus Bank pointed out, for the Greek economy the prospects for a return to normality are positive. And it is remarkable that despite the difficulties of the current situation, the Greek economy is still on the radar of investors – Greek and foreign – which creates the conditions for the introduction of significant capital into the country. Companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Pfizer, and others have expressed interest or are already investing in Greece

The president of the National Bank, Gikas Hardouvelis, pointed out that in the adverse economic environment, for now, the Greek economy remains resilient. Having recovered significantly in 2021 with GDP growth of 8.3% at constant prices, it is coping with the challenges. As he estimated again this year, despite the downside risks, it is expected to continue growing at a rate of around 4%. That is, above the Eurozone average. He pointed out that for 2023, however, the risks remain significant, especially if the crisis in Ukraine continues and inflationary pressures persist.

Alpha Bank President Vassilis Rapanos pointed out that despite geopolitical uncertainty, real GDP is expected to remain on an upward trajectory in the coming quarters of 2022. The main driver of growth is expected to be the good performance of tourism. The impact of additional fiscal measures announced by the government aimed at mitigating rising energy costs, as well as increasing the rate of absorption of resources under the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RESF), will also be positive, Mr. Rapanos said. . Based on recent European Commission estimates, real GDP will grow by 4% in 2022 and by 2.4% in 2023. It is also estimated that the Consumer Price Index will reach 8.9% in 2022 and decelerate to 3, 5% in 2023. However, apart from the government’s support measures, the main conditions for supporting economic activity are the strengthening of the extroversion of Greek businesses and the increase in the competitiveness of domestically produced goods and services. The utilization of the financial resources of the Recovery and Stability Fund, combined with prudent fiscal policy and disruptive changes, will play a catalytic role in the country obtaining the investment grade, which is vital for the financing of the public and private sectors, he said. the chairman of Alpha Bank.

The president of Eurobank Giorgos Zanias said that in the special and difficult international situation we are in, our country is, for the first time in a long time, in a more favorable position by comparison. Factors that advocate such a diversification are: the improvement of the country’s credibility, the utilization of a series of opportunities created by the long-term crisis, the gradual performance of a series of reforms carried out mainly during the years of the economic programs, the unprecedented level of European capital on 90 billion euros for the coming years and the consolidation of the Greek banking system, pointed out Mr. Zanias. Growth in our country this year is expected to be based on service exports (tourism), public investments through the NSRF and the Recovery and Resilience Fund and private consumption.

Demands for fiscal interventions during the last two crises brought back high budget deficits, with the primary deficit in 2020 reaching 7.2% of GDP. However, he estimated that the fiscal situation is manageable under the strict condition that excesses in fiscal policy will be avoided from now on and there will be no negative surprises in the economic development course. The public debt is also judged to be sustainable due to its excellent qualitative characteristics, despite its huge amount as a percentage of GDP (206.3% in 2020 and 193.3% in 2021), while it is expected to fall below 180% of GDP by the end of 2022. An ally in this de-escalation of the public debt is the high short-term inflation, which is not expected to have the known negative effects on the competitiveness of the Greek economy as it is a generalized phenomenon, although there are differences, and they do not change to a significant extent relative product prices.

Source: Capital