The IMF’s examination of Spain: five years of crisis and Sánchez skips 6 of its 7 recommendations

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He had it so tied that his own Pedro Sánchez he himself voted against the amendments to the entirety of his budget project for 2021 by telematic means, like most of his ministers. And if they had forgotten, nothing would have happened either because even a Vox deputy, Magdalena NevadoHe was wrong and voted alongside the Socialists. In the end, the result was 150 votes in favor of knocking down the Budget and 198 to save it. A majority as incoherent as it is overwhelming that will have to manage the end of the coronavirus from the outset and the havoc it leaves, as the in-depth examination of the International Monetary Fund’s mission to Spain pointed out the following day:  «It is likely that it takes several years to reach the pre-pandemic level of production.

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How many years? It has gone unnoticed, but the IMF has decided to incorporate a new forecast scenario for Spain that is more  «adverse» than in September in case, among other factors, the Government notes  «a failure to control outbreaks ». There would be â € œnew economic shocks and a tightening of financing conditions due to concerns about company accountsâ €.  «In these circumstances, real GDP will stagnate in 2021» and would not return to 2019 levels until 2025. In other words, a five-year crisis in which the debt would touch 140% of GDP, 20 points more than planned now.

It is a monstrous debt that the Spanish bank could not buy which, according to the IMF, is already at the bottom of the Eurozone in capital strength and which already dedicates 7% of its assets to Spanish Treasury bonds. Too much tied to sovereign risk in the opinion of the IMF mission. This, however, continues to maintain as a  «central scenario» a recovery in Spain from 2023 but without being able to return to the unemployment rate of 2019 (14.1%) or in 2025, in which it predicted © 14.2%, provided the other  «adverse scenario» does not materialize. Therefore, it assumes five years of crisis at least in employment and perhaps also in GDP.

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In view of the  «fragmented Parliament», the IMF mission sees  «high risk» for the Spanish economy, because  «the possible lack or reversal of the reforms and the uncertainty about the deficit situation to medium term could weaken confidence, investment, and employment, which negatively affects the dynamics of public debt and could trigger adverse reactions in the market. And that the IMF technicians wrote the report before the soup of parties that have supported Sánchez to harvest in the amendment process: ERC, PDeCAt, PNV, Nueva Canarias, Teruel Existe or the Regionalist Party of Cantabria. And even Bildu, who took multiple concessions from the Navarrese government this Saturday with the icing on the cake of two million euros for the amendments they want.

With these partners it will be difficult to improve IMF reviews. According to his report, of the seven economic policy recommendations he made to Sánchez in 2018, he has missed six. He asked for a reduction in the structural deficit  «and it got worse already before Covid-19». He advised “growth-enhancing adjustment measures” and “no major measures have been introduced.” He urged him to maintain the pension system reforms of 2011 and 2013 to sustain it and “plans to re-link the increases to the CPI and abolish the sustainability factor.” Nor has he paid attention to making permanent contracts more attractive and introducing the so-called “Austrian backpack.” On his advice to promote labor mobility,  «he has not taken any action»; and only “limited” on strengthening market unity. That of planning an improvement in active employment policies has been followed, they say.

Bulgaria yes, but Spain, no

Nadia Calviño he received the IMF envoys, but has been unlucky enough that they have published his report on Spain at the same time as that of Bulgaria with depressing differences. The IMF congratulates the Government of Boiko Borisov for “having faced the pandemic with a budget surplus and credibility.” And he points out that as the virus will not generate a deficit beyond 4%, the remuneration for pensioners and civil servants may increase. Quite the opposite in Spain. With a deficit this year of 14% insists that not only will it not be able to finance itself for years without the ECB [rescate permanente]Rather, it requires  «a post-Covid budget adjustment». And to support that adjustment, which the IMF places no later than next fall for the 2022 Budgets, to see who is left of those who supported Sánchez on Thursday.

DURO FELGUERA TURNS OFF

The historic industrial company that has its origins in 1858 may not reach 2021. Duro Felguera shuts down and his last grip is the support of the Sociedad Estatal de Participaciones Industriales (Sepi), because the board of directors has refused to let him keep it. businessman Blas Herrero. The president of Duro Felguera, Rosa Aza, does not believe that Herrero has the financing or the necessary industrial project and has written to the Vice President of the Government, Nadia Calvià ± o, to unblock the stuck negotiation with the Sepi. But the Galician minister has not answered Aza for ten days and the Asturian president, Adrián Barbón, dismissed the Duro board of directors yesterday in La Nueva Espaà ± a when he asked that the Sepi examine whether Herrero’s option is valid. The president of the company believes that the best is direct temporary support from Sepi, but time is running out.

Character

FIFTH, REACTION IN ABENGOA

The former deputy of Citizens and former world vice president of Coca-Cola, Marcos de Quinto, can become the new president of Abengoa this Tuesday, if the play goes well for the minorities. It has 14% of capital that groups together more than 1,350 shareholders before a notary public, above any other partner. The group that supports De Quinto maintains that the current president, Gonzalo Urquijo, has ignored them and that his clash against the Junta de Andalucía has been absurd. The plan is to change some parts of its viability plan to save the historic Spanish energy company and try to have De Quinto be president on the 17th in an extraordinary meeting. They also promise to eliminate the bonus for Urquijo and his executives amounting to 60 million expected in an astonishing way while the company is asking for a public rescue. It is a reaction, but the situation is borderline.

To follow

THE CHRISTMAS CAMPAIGN, KEY

The first year in office of the president of El Corte Inglà © s, Marta à ?? lvarez, could not have been more convulsive. As if the structural challenges faced by this great Spanish company against Amazon and other new competitors were few, the pandemic has dealt a severe blow to its business model. The bank responded before the state of alarm with a refinancing of 2,000 million and El Corte Inglà © s has continued to successfully place corporate bonds that have provided liquidity in these months of falling income, but the new measures to restrict mobility complicate the picture. El Corte Inglà © s is an emblematic example of what so many companies need and is to set something right for the year with the crucial Christmas campaign. Better measures now that save December, but the so-called co-governance does not work against the virus.

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