Germany has declared first stage of the emergency plan for gas supply. The greatest impact in the event of stoppages in the gas supply would be expected in the industry. Deutsche Bank economists distinguish between first, second and third round effects.
Early warning stage for gas supply: Industry on alert
“In the first round, there would be selective and announced closures of specific individual large consumerspotentially for a long period.”
“In the second round, consumers of products from energy-intensive manufacturing would also be affectedthat is, the classic manufacturers of capital goods (automotive, mechanical engineering, electrical engineering)”.
“The effects of the third round would include the loss of jobs and income in the affected sectors. In addition, even higher energy prices and corresponding negative effects on disposable income. Savings rate could rise for precautionary reasons and dampen private consumption“.
Source: Fx Street
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