The Japanese Yen bounces modestly despite the weak trade data, with the Fed in focus policy

• The USD/JPY goes back below 145.00 while the operators become cautious before the decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate.
• The Japanese Yen finds a modest support despite weak commercial data and a stable political position of the Bank of Japan.
• The attention focuses on the Fed points chart and its policy tone to obtain clues about the next movement of the USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stops his three -day loss streak against the US dollar (USD) on Wednesday, finding a modest support despite a series of weak commercial data. The resilience of Yen occurs while the dollar operates with caution before the decision on the Federal Reserve interest rate (Fed), helping the Japanese yen to recover part of the lost terrain.

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is going down, quoting around 144.75 during the American session and erasing almost all profits on Tuesday.

The torque has dropped approximately 0.33% in the day, having reversed sharply after not being able to keep the impulse near Tuesday’s maximum of 145.38. Notably, the region of 145.00–145.50 has consistently acted as a roof for the torque since the beginning of June, reinforcing the area as a short -term resistance.

Earlier in the day, new commercial data highlighted the challenges facing Japan’s economy. Exports fell 1.7% year -on -year in May to a minimum of four months of 8,134.99 billions of JPY, marking the first annual fall since last September, since US tariffs affected shipments abroad. However, the fall was milder than the 3.8% descent expected by markets.

Imports were more drastically contracted, falling 7.7% year -on -year to a minimum of three months of 8,772.60 billions of JPY – the largest fall since January 2024 – reflecting a weak domestic demand.

Despite the weakest commercial flows, Japan’s commercial deficit was significantly reduced to 637.61 billions of JPY in May, significantly better than the projected deficit of 893 billions of JPY and well below the deficit of 115.6 billions of JPY recorded a year earlier, providing a slight relief to the yen in the middle of winds.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its reference interest rate without changes as expected, but those responsible for policies are in a critical moment while navigating the competitive pressures of the prices of the increasing raw materials and the increasing commercial barriers of the United States.

Inflation in Japan is being driven by the increase in oil prices, fueled by tensions in the Middle East, along with the highest food costs, with rice prices increasing significantly. Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated a cautious but flexible posture, balancing these inflationary risks with the possible drag of external tariffs.

The official perspective of the Central Bank provides for underlying 2.2% inflation for the next fiscal year, moderating to 1.7% later. However, officials have kept the door open to policy adjustments if inflation dynamics or US trade policy change unexpectedly.

Looking ahead, operators focus their attention on the decision on the interest rate of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for 18:00 GMT. While markets generally expect that the FED maintains unchanged fees, any signal on the future trajectory of politics, updated economic projections or changes in the points graph could direct new movements in the USD/JPY and the feeling of the broader market in the coming sessions.