The Japanese yen moves little after the national CPI; It remains close to minimum of several months against the dollar

• The Japanese yen remains defensive in the midst of reduced betting of Boj’s rates.
• The Japan National CPI report does not help provide significant impulse.
• The operators seem reluctant before the elections of the Upper House of Japan on Sunday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) advances slightly in front of his American counterpart during Friday’s Asian session, although he lacks bullish conviction and remains close to a minimum of more than three months reached earlier this week. The operators seem reluctant to open aggressive positions and choose to stay out before the elections of the Upper House of Japan during the weekend. Meanwhile, the JPY moves little after the publication of the latest inflation figures to the earlier consumer today.

The growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would resign to increase interest rates this year continues to act as an obstacle to the JPY. Apart from this, the risk environment helps to limit the JPY. The US dollar (USD), on the other hand, operates with a negative bias below its highest level since June 23, reached on Thursday after the dovish comments of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller, and acts as an obstacle to the USD/JPY torque.

The Japanese and fight for an intra -firm direction in the midst of internal political uncertainty

• The elections of the Chamber of Counselors are scheduled to be held in Japan this Sunday, July 20. This is considered a critical mid -term proof for the coalition in trouble of Prime Minister Shigeru Ihiba of the Democratic Liberal Party (LDP) and Komeito.
• Recent media surveys suggest that the fragile minority government will probably lose its majority, increasing the risk of political instability and fueling fears of an increase in debt, in the midst of opposition calls to increase spending and cut taxes.
• This occurs at a time when Japan is struggling to reach a commercial agreement with the US and could complicate the path of normalization of the policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to undermine the Japanese and in the midst of the optimism of the market.
• Meanwhile, the latest data published by the Japan Statistics Office on Friday showed that the National Consumer Price Index (IPC) increased 3.3% year -on -year in June and the indicator excluding fresh food prices reached 3.3%, lowering from the previous 3.7%.
• In addition, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy increased by 3.4% during the month reported compared to 3.3% reading in May. The data offers a certain relief to the BOJ, which is ready to update its inflation projections at the July policy meeting.
• Meanwhile, operators have been reducing their expectations of an immediate cut of interest rates by the Federal Reserve amid the evidence that the increasing import taxes of the Trump administration are moving to consumer prices.
• The governor of the Fed, Adriana Kugler, said Thursday that the still restrictive political position is important to keep the expectations of long -term inflation anchored, and it will be appropriate to maintain the policy rate at the current level for some time.
• The president of the Fed of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, said that the feat cuts could be difficult in the short term and that the economic perspectives remain highly uncertain, since the tariff adjustments could take months.
• The president of the Fed of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said that despite the general progress in inflation, the Central Bank still has a job to do in inflation. If the rate cut occurs in July or September is not the most relevant, Daly added.
• Separately, the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, said that the growing risks for the economy favor a relief of the policy rate and that the Central Bank should cut its interest rate objective in July in the midst of the evidence that the labor market is weakening.
• This, in turn, moves the US dollar away from a new monthly maximum, reached on Thursday after the publication of positive macroeconomic data from the US, and keeps the USD/JPy below below its highest level in more than three months.
• The operators now expect the publication of inflation expectations and the feeling of the Michigan consumer, as well as the US market data – construction permits and beginnings of housing – to obtain some impulse later this Friday.

USD/JPY You need to find acceptance above 149.00 for the bulls to keep control in the short term

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY torque showed some resistance below the single mobile (SMA) average (SMA) at the beginning of this week, and the subsequent rise movement favors the upward operators. In addition, the oscillators remain comfortably in positive territory and are still far from being in the overcompra zone. However, the lack of impulse during the night to build beyond the 149.00 mark justifies some caution. Therefore, it will be prudent to wait for some purchase of continuation beyond the region of 149.15-149.20, or a peak of several months, before positioning for a movement towards recovering the psychological brand of 150.00.

On the negative side, the region of 148.20-148.25, or the 100-hour SMA could offer immediate support before the 148.00 mark. Some sales of continuation, which lead to a fall below the 147.70 zone, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerating the fall towards testing levels below 147.00. The acceptance below the latter could change the bias in favor of the bearish operations and drag cash prices towards the intermediate support of 146.60 en route to the 146.20 area, the 146.00 mark and the 100 -day SMA, currently located near the region of 145.80.