The Japanese yen remains close to minimum of several weeks against the dollar while the concerns in trade mode

• The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers intradicted on Monday, although he lacks bullish conviction.
• The increase in commercial tensions, the reduction of the expectations of rising of the BOJ and internal political uncertainty limit the JPY.
• The decrease in the probabilities of an immediate cuts of rates by the Fed offers support to the USD and the USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly recovered from a minimum of three weeks reached against a US dollar (USD) that is generally withdrawn during Monday’s Asian session. The feeling of global risk is still fragile after the new threat of the US president, Donald Trump, to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union (EU) as of August 1. This is evident in a generally weaker tone in shares markets and turns out to be a key factor that supports JPY as a safe refuge.

Meanwhile, operators have been reducing their expectations of an immediate increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) amid concerns about the economic repercussions of the highest US tariffs. This could stop the JPY uprisers of making aggressive bets due to internal political uncertainty before the elections of the upper house on July 20. In addition, the expectations of a reduced number of feature cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) This year should offer some support to the USD and the USD/JPY torque.

The Japanese Yen struggles to attract buyers while operators reduce the upload bets of BOJ fees in the midst of growing commercial tensions

• In a new escalation of commercial wars, the president of the USA, Donald Trump, announced new tariffs to two of the largest commercial partners: Mexico and the European Union, in separate letters on Saturday. This, in turn, moderates the appetite of investors by more risky assets and benefits the Japanese and safe refuge at the beginning of a new week.
• Last week, Trump issued tariff notices to more than 20 countries, including Japan, and also a 50% tariff to copper imports. This adds to the fall of real wages and inflation cooling signs in Japan, which, together with internal political uncertainty, could allow the Bank of Japan to refrain from increasing rates this year.
• Recent media surveys have generated doubts about whether the ruling coalition of Japan, of the Democratic Liberal Party (LDP) and Komeito, can ensure enough seats to keep its majority in the elections of the Upper House on July 20. This adds a layer of uncertainty and should maintain a limit to any significant appreciation of the JPY.
• The operators reduced their bets for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month in advance of an inflation worsening as a result of the largest imports to imports and an still resistant US labor market. This keeps the US dollar about a maximum of almost three weeks reached on Monday and offers support to the USD/JPY torque.
• The operators now expect the publication of US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Production Price Index (IPP) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The data should provide clues about the FED rate cuts trajectory, which, together with the Speeches of FOMC members, will boost the USD.
• Meanwhile, the fundamental background mentioned above justifies a certain caution for the JPY bulls and supports the possibility of purchasing at lower levels around the USD/JPy pair.

The USD/JPY seems to be prepared to continue with the recent upward movement and aspire to recover the level of 148.00

The sustained breakout last week and a daily closure above the single mobile (SMA) average for the first time since February 2025 was considered a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. In addition, the oscillators in the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overcompra zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of lower resistance for the currency torque is upward. Some purchases below the region of 147.50-147.55 will reaffirm the constructive configuration and raise cash prices towards the level of 148.00 or the maximum of June. The posterior movement could extend even more towards the maximum of May, around the region of 148.65, en route to the level of 149.00.

On the contrary, any corrective setback could be seen as a purchase opportunity near the region of 146.60-146.55. This is closely followed by the intermediate support of 146.25 and the round figure of 146.00. Some sales of continuation, which lead to a subsequent fall below the 100-day SMA, currently set near the 145.80 region, could change the trend in favor of the bassists of the USD/JPY and pave the way for a decrease towards the area of 145.50-145.45 en route to the psychological level of 145.00.