The Japanese yen remains down against a dollar that is recovered in a generalized way

• The Japanese Yen attracted some sellers intradia in the midst of a decrease in the demand for safe refuge.
• A modest USD rebound also contributes to the recovery of the USD/JPY torque of more than 100 pips.
• Concerns for the commercial war and divergent policy expectations between the BOJ and the Fed should limit the losses of the JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) maintains its negative bias during Thursday’s Asian session against a US dollar (USD) that is generally recovered, since there is a generally positive risk tone that undermines the demand for traditional assets of safe refuge. However, any significant depreciation of the JPY still seems elusive following the uncertainty about the announcement of tariffs of US President Donald Trump, the rapid climbing of the commercial war between the US and China, and the fears of global recession.

In addition, the expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will further increase interest rates – although it could delay the decision amid concerns about the economic damage caused by Trump’s tariffs – they act as a wind in favor for the JPY. Meanwhile, the bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon resume its cycle of feature cuts could stop the USD bulls to make aggressive bets and contribute to limit the recovery of the USD/JPY torque from a minimum of several months.

The Japanese Yen is affected by the improvement of the feeling of risk; The expectations of a hard line box and the problems of the commercial war will limit the losses

• Asian stock market and stock markets markets of the US stock market rates advance on Thursday after the fall led by technology on Wall Street, weakening traditional assets of safe refuge, including Japanese Yen.
• A former executive director of the Bank of Japan, Kenzo Yamamoto, said that the Central Bank will probably delay the increase in rates and wants to see how commercial conversations between the US and Japan advance before taking any measure.
• On Wednesday, the governor of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, pointed out the possibility of pausing the rate increase cycle and said that the Central Bank may need to take policy measures if US tariffs harm the Japanese economy.
• In addition, Reuters – citing three sources – reported that the BOJ is ready to cut its economic growth forecasts at the meeting from April 30 to May 1, since US tariffs increase the risks for the fragile economic recovery.
• The US dollar attracts some buyers and reverts part of the fall of the previous day, approaching a minimum of several years after the hard line comments of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
• Powell said that the US Central Bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future amid still persistent inflation and economic uncertainties introduced by the tariffs of President Donald Trump.
• This adds to the encouraging retail sales of the United States, which drastically increased 1.4% in March, after a 0.2% reviewed increase in the previous month, which offers additional support to the dollar.
• However, markets are still valuing the possibility that the FED reduces indebtedness costs at least three times this year amid growing concerns about an economic deceleration driven by tariffs in the US.
• In the last development around the commercial struggle between the US and China, the US government imposed new license requirements and limited the exports of artificial intelligence chips H20 to China.
• This occurs after China increased its tariffs on imports from US goods to 125% last Friday as a measure of retaliation to Trump’s decision to effectively increase US tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%.
• In contrast, Trump said negotiators had made “great advances” in commercial conversations with a Japanese delegation in Washington about the avalanche of tariffs that he has imposed on global imports.
• Adding to this, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ihiba said that conversations with the US were constructive and that the Government will continue to consider trade negotiations as a maximum priority.
• In addition, Japan Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said officials agreed to hold a second meeting this month and believed that the US wants an agreement within the 90 -day window.
• This, in turn, feeds the optimism that Japan could reach a commercial agreement with the US, which, together with the expectations that the Boj will increase interest rates in 2025, should limit the deepest losses of the JPY.
• The BOJ council member, Junko Nagakawa, said that if the perspective of economic activity and prices is carried out, the Central Bank will continue to increase the fees and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
• The operators now look at the US economic agenda – which includes the usual weekly applications of unemployment subsidy, the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed and housing market data – in search of a new impulse.

The USD/JPY needs to go beyond the 143.00 mark to extend intradic recovery from a minimum of several months

From a technical perspective, rupture and closure below the 142.00 brand they saw themselves as a new trigger for the bearish operators. In addition, the negative oscillators in the daily chart suggest that the path of lower resistance for the USD/JPy torque is still down. Therefore, any subsequent movement above the round figure of 143.00 could be seen as a sale opportunity near the region of 143.5-143.60 and will remain limited near the round figure of 144.00. However, a sustained strength beyond the latter could trigger a short coverage rally towards the horizontal barrier of 144.45-144.50 in the direction of the psychological brand of 145.00.

On the other hand, the round figure of 142.00 now seems to protect the immediate fall before the 141.60 zone, or a minimum of several months reached during the Asian session. Some continuation sales will reaffirm the negative bias and will pave the way for an extension of the well -established bearish trend of the USD/JPY pair observed during the last three months approximately.