The Japanese yen submerges again near its weekly minimum against a more strong dollar

• The Japanese Yen attracts new sellers while operators reduce the uprising of the Boj rates in the midst of growing commercial tensions.
• Internal political uncertainty and a positive risk tone undermine the safe refuge.
• The USD is located about a maximum of two weeks amid reduced bets of Fed fees and elevates the USD/JPY closer to 147.00.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) moves down against a US dollar (USD) in general stronger during Friday’s Asian session and is still on the way to register weekly losses in the midst of reduced bets for an immediate rise in rates by the Bank of Japan (Boj). The president of the USA, Donald Trump, recently imposed a 25% tariff on all Japanese exports to America from August 1 and ruled out any extension of the term. This occurs at a time when economic growth has been slowed, which, together with the decrease in real wages and signs of cooling of inflationary pressures, should allow the BOJ to refrain from increasing interest rates this year.

In addition, internal political uncertainty before the elections of the Chamber of Counselors on July 20 turns out to be another factor that contributes to the lower relative performance of the JPY in front of its US counterpart. In fact, the USD (DXY) index, which tracks the value of the dollar against a foreign exchange basket, remains firm about a maximum of two and a half weeks reached Thursday in the midst of the decrease in the probabilities of a short -term reduction in the indebtedness costs by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, elevates USD/JPY’s torque closer to the 147.00 mark in the last hour and supports the case for greater appreciation.

Japanese Yen bassists maintain short -term control in the midst of decreased probabilities of an immediate rise in the Boj

• The president of the United States, Donald Trump, revived the concerns about the commercial war this week and issued notices to key allies, including Japan, delineating individual tariff fees as of August 1. Japan faces a hard 25% tariff to all exports to America in the midst of stagnant commercial negotiations between the US and Japan, particularly on the protection of Japan to its rice market.
• The Japanese prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, described the movement as a truly unfortunate and said that bilateral conversations would continue in search of a mutually beneficial result. Japan expects to organize meetings between its chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, and the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, during his visit to the World Exhibition on July 19.
• Meanwhile, the data published this week showed that the real salaries of Japan in May fell to their fastest rate in 20 months. In addition, Japan’s production price index suggested that inflation pressures could be cooling. This, together with the increase in commercial tensions, could complicate the plans of the Bank of Japan to normalize its monetary policy.
• The recent media surveys have generated doubts about whether the ruling coalition of Japan of the Democratic Liberal Party (LDP) and Komeito can ensure enough seats to keep its majority in the elections of the Upper House on July 20. This adds an additional layer of uncertainty and continues to undermine the Japanese yen.
• The US dollar is negotiated with a positive bias near its highest level in more than two weeks, since the operators moderate their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of this month. This contributes even more to the strong upward movement of the USD/JPY torque during the Asian session and supports the additional profit perspectives.
• Meanwhile, the president of the Fed of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said Thursday that monetary policy is still restrictive and that it is time to think about adjusting the interest rate. The tariffs are not as high as expected, and the economic foundations support a movement towards lower rates at some point, Daly added.
• Separately, the member of the Board of Governors of the FED, Christopher Waller, said that the inflationary effects of tariffs will probably be of short duration and that a rate cut here would not be politically motivated. Waller, one of the possible favorites to replace Powell in 2026, made another call for an anticipated interest rate cut in July.
• In contrast, the president of the Fed of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, said it was too early to say if the tariffs will have a specific or more persistent impact on inflation. The economy is in a good place, and is critical for the Fed to keep the expectations of long -term inflation anchored, Musalem added.
• In the front of the economic data, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that the initial unemployment subsidy applications fell to 227K for the week that ended on July 5. The reading was lower than consensus estimates and the read -down reading of the previous month of 232K, indicating an still resilient labor market.
• There are no relevant economic data scheduled for publication in the US on Friday, leaving the USD/JPY at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. However, cash prices are still on the way to registering strong weekly profits, since attention now focuses on US inflation figures next week.

The USD/JPY bulls now expect a sustained force and acceptance above 147.00 before making new bets

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY torque attracts buyers at lower levels near the single mobile (SMA) support of 100 hours per second consecutive day. An subsequent force beyond the 147.00 mark will be seen as a new trigger for upward operators based on positive oscillators in schedules/day graphics. Cash prices could then rise to an intermediate obstacle near the region of 147.60-147.65 and eventually aim to test the maximum of June again, around the round figure of 148.00.

On the other hand, any corrective setback could continue to find a decent support near the 100 -hour SMA, currently located near the 146.20 area. Some sales of continuation, which lead to a later break through the 146.00 mark, could change the bias in favor of the USD/JPY bassists. The downward trajectory could then extend to the 145.50-145.45.45 area to the 145.00 psychological brand.