The Mexican weight maintains recent profits while operators expect consumer confidence data and the result of commercial conversations

• The Mexican weight remains in the recent profits before the consumer confidence data of the April consumer, a key indicator of the internal feeling that could influence the next Banxico movement.
• The optimism about commercial conversations between the US and China, which will be held on Saturday, continues to drive the feeling, indirectly supporting the weight and other currency of emerging markets.
• The USD/MXN is still vulnerable to the Fed policy signals before the next decision of Banxico rates, with the divergence probably shaping the short -term direction of the torque.

The Mexican peso (MXN) is generally stable against the US dollar (USD) in the European session on Friday, while the attention focuses on the next consumer confidence data of Mexico and a series of speeches of the Federal Reserve (FED), while the operators are directed towards the weekend focusing on the commercial discussions between the US and China that will take place on Saturday.

At the time of writing, the USD/MXN is close to 19.51, with a 0.03%drop, and additional movements are expected to be driven by changes in the feeling around the Fed policy signals, internal economic data and global commercial developments.

The Mexican weight awaits consumer confidence data

At 12:00 GMT, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) of Mexico will publish the Confidence figures of the April consumer. The previous reading was 46.

This index reflects household opinions on the economy, labor perspectives and future financial conditions. A stronger reading indicates an increase in optimism and potentially a greater internal expense, which would support weight. On the contrary, a weaker figure could point out economic restlessness, adding pressure to the currency.

Fed speakers represent an additional threat to Mexican weight

Another important engine for the USD/MXN is the difference in interest rates and the divergence of policies between Banxico and the Federal Reserve. With the central banks at the global level still focused on curbing inflation, the markets are closely observing a series of speeches today from Fed officials after their decision to keep stable interest rates in the US on Wednesday.

The USD/MXN pair will probably be promoted by an agenda full of speakers of the Federal Reserve on Friday, with key vote members, including governors Adriana Kugler, Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller, making statements that could influence the expectations of the US monetary policy. The markets will be particularly sensitive to any hard line signal Fed movement.

Falcon speeches known as Kugler and Musalem could tip the feeling towards a stronger US dollar (USD) if they reinforce the case to keep the highest rates for longer.

Meanwhile, multiple appearances at the Hoover monetary policy conference increase the possibility of coordinated or reinforced messages on inflation and rates strategy.

Daily summary of the Mexican weight: fundamental promoters of the USD/MXN

• During the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland. President Trump’s comments that “could reduce tariffs to China if conversations are going well” on Thursday, after the announcement of the commercial agreement between the US and the United Kingdom, they have improved the feeling of the market, offering support to the weight and other currency of emerging markets by increasing the appetite due to the risk.
• As an emerging market currency (EM), the weight is particularly sensitive to changes in the feeling of risk and depends largely on exports to the US, which represent approximately 80% of the total exports of Mexico.
• Recent USAs of US tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars, as well as the possibility of additional encumbrances outside the T-MEC, have generated concerns about the growth prospects of Mexico and have added economic uncertainty.
• Banxico is expected to cut the rates between 25 and 50 basic points (PBS) at its next meeting on May 15.
• The April Inflation Report of Mexico, published on Thursday, showed that price growth was accelerated to 3.93% year -on -year, above the 3.90% prognosis. The underlying inflation increased by 0.49% intermensual, from 0.43% in March and exceeding 0.47% expectations.
• The upward surprise in both figures, both the general and the underlying, indicates pressures of persistent underlying prices. However, since inflation is maintained within the target range of the Central Bank of between 2% and 4%, the markets are widely expecting that Banxico cuts the fees next week.

Technical configuration of the USD/MXN: the bearish pressure persists below 19,600

The USD/MXN is still under pressure, quoting just above the key support in 19.50, with the general trend even pointing down.

The pair is struggling to recover the simple mobile average (SMA) of 10 days in 19.59, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.

The price action remains limited by a line of descending trend since the fall of April, reinforcing the bassist impulse.

For the bulls to win traction, a movement above the 10 -day SMA and a break above the psychological level of 19.60 could offer the opportunity for the USD/MXN to continue towards the maximum of May around 19.78.

Meanwhile, a movement below 19.50 and a daily closure below April 19.47 could expose a greater decrease.

The Relative Force Index (RSI) in 38.35 suggests a bearish impulse without being overst, indicating that there is still room for sellers to maintain control unless a fundamental catalyst triggers a reversal.

USD/MXN daily graphics