The New Zealand dollar goes back from a maximum of two weeks while the RBNZ indicates growth risks

• The NZD/USD goes back from a maximum of two weeks, breaking a two -day streak run while the US dollar stabilizes.
• The US manufacturing PMI falls to contraction territory, while service and compound readings improve.
• The RBNZ chief economist warns that tariffs are a “negative demand shock,” underlining the pro-fursexibilization monetary policy of the Central Bank.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakens slightly against the US dollar (USD) on Thursday, going back from a maximum of two weeks reached earlier in the day. This movement breaks a two -day streak for the Kiwi while the dollar finds stability after a volatile start of the week. Commercial optimism continues to support the general feeling of the market, limiting the decrease for risk -sensitive currencies, such as NZD.

The NZD/USD is going down, around 0.6040 at the time of writing, after having climbed a maximum of two weeks of 0.6059 earlier in the session. Intradía correction reflects a slight profits, with the profits limited by the expectations of greater relief of politics by the New Zealand Reserve Bank (RBNZ) in the midst of soft inflation and global commercial uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the American dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six main currencies, is stabilizing about a minimum of two weeks. The US dollar is receiving modest support from initial louder unemployment subsidy applications than expected and a mixed data set of the PMI. While the manufacturing sector entered the contraction, the services sector surprised up. The divergence between the weak manufacturing activity and the robust growth of the services helped to raise the compound PMI, suggesting that the general activity of the private sector is maintained in a solid base. The data offered the US dollar a short -term relief after a turbulent week, although political and policy uncertainty continues to limit profits.

At the time of writing, the index is consolidating around 97.30 while investors prepare for an intensified political drama before the programmed visit of the US president, Donald Trump, to the Federal Reserve (FED) at 20:00 GMT. The visit occurs while the Fed enters its period of silence before the policy decision next week, intensifying concerns about the political interference and independence of the Central Bank.

Back in New Zealand, the chief economist of the RBNZ, Paul Conway, offered a cautious but optimistic evaluation of the country’s economic perspectives in a speech on Thursday, highlighting that global commercial tensions, particularly US tariffs, represent a downward risk for inflation and the New Zealand growth trajectory. Conway said that, although some might expect tariffs to fan inflation, in the case of New Zealand, they are more likely to act as a “negative demand shock” that softens the pressure on prices. “Unlike the US, where tariffs could temporarily raise prices, here in New Zealand, the most dominant effect is a weakening of global demand and lower import costs,” he said, adding that “this combination points to inflation risks reduced to medium term.”

Conway also stressed that commercial uncertainty continues “weighs a lot in business investment decisions and household spending intentions,” creating winds against inmates. He reaffirmed RBNZ’s disposition to further relieve policy if inflation trends are down, stating that the Central Bank has “wide margin to cut the official interest rate if conditions justify it.”

Although inflation is maintained within the target range of 1%-3%, Conway warned that “the economy will probably operate below its potential until mid-2026” unless global conditions improve. Their comments reinforce the RBNZ dovish bias, with the disinflation promoted by trade and excess economic capacity that will probably maintain more feats of rates on the table.