The OECD places Spain at the head of the world economic collapse in 2020 with a drop of 14.4% after the virus
The OECD estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by just 5% next year, a figure that, in addition to being totally insufficient to recover from the collapse of this year, represents only half of the official government data. And in this way, the body headed by ngel GurrÃa adds to what already supposes evidence according to the forecasts of the main national and international institutions and analysis firms: that the Executive’s figures are fully out of date.
According to the official estimate that the Government set out in the General State Budgets (PGE), “economic growth is expected to be reinforced by the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, which can make it possible to achieve a real GDP growth rate of 9.8%”On the other hand, the forecasts published this Tuesday by the OECD indicate that the rebound will actually be half, thus confirming the worst-case scenario that was reflected in June, and they anticipate that Spain will not recover pre-crisis levels until at least 2023.
The main reason for this situation is that the economy has suffered a strong slowdown after the summer, which will affect the growth figures for this year but, even more if possible, those for next year as it will occur What some analysts call the carry-over effect. “The strong rebound in the third quarter is expected to be followed by a contraction in the fourth quarter”, explains the OECD, adding that” the adverse impact of the new containment measures on activity, especially in the hospitality sector “.
The OECD estimate, in fact, could be even less negative than those advanced, for example, in the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF). Its president, Cristina Herrero, pointed out last week that she fears that the growth data for next year is really in the most negative estimate of AIReF, that is, below even 4%
The Funcas panel, for its part, published last Friday that up to 14 of its 20 panelists have worsened their estimates for next year “derived from the bad data that is expected for the fourth quarter of the year”.
The worst data in the OECD
The limited rebound forecast for 2021 adds to the 11.2% drop that the OECD estimates for this year, which confirms that the collapse of the Spanish economy will be the most pronounced of all those integrated into the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, although, in this case, its figure is even slightly less negative than of the government.
In any case, the situation in Spain evidently contrasts with that of most OECD economies. In fact, the organization slightly improves in its document figures such as the expected collapse for the group of countries and even points out that “for the first time since the pandemic began, there is now hope for a brighter future”Progress with vaccines and treatments has raised expectations and uncertainty has decreased,” he adds.
But the problem, he adds, is that the recovery will be uneven and warns that “differences in sectoral specialization, and especially in the economic weight of international tourism, are a key factor in the asymmetric impact of Covid- 19 in the euro area, with the southern countries being the most affected and, among them, Spain more affected than Italy”.
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