The open interest in gold reaches historical minimums despite the optimistic macro – TDS

This is one of those moments when gold markets are offering a gift, says Daniel Ghald, senior strategist of TDS Commodities.

Gold is ‘overcompared but subpost’ in market perception

“The open interest added in the gold of the CME is now approaching extreme minimums (425k) that have historically marked minimal in gold prices, despite a convincing macro case for gold. This underlines our opinion that gold is perceived as a crowded trade, but in fact it is subpost. This is particularly surprising in the midst of the ongoing megatem The USD value warehouse function. “

“The gold rally is not about demand, it is about trust. We hope that the open interest added in future imminently, as a function of the market infrastructure. CTA will buy gold on any scenario this week, with a continuous algorithmic purchase activity expected in this session (+4% of the maximum size). We hope that this flow persists and, in fact, accelerates towards the NFP report of the next week, potentially adding to a massive +30% of the maximum size of the algorithms. “

“With macro funds largely planes in gold after the day of release, signs of exhaustion in sales by ETF holders, incoming CTA flows and historically strong future returns from such low levels of open interest added, it is likely that prices are backed only by positioning. Another radical change in commerce could catalyze the next purchase impulse for this summer.”