At a time when all eyes are on Ukraine, the mediators are trying to avoid escalating the political stalemate in Libya into a new war.
The country that is already divided between two rival governments in the east and the west, Libya has been with two rival governments since the beginning of March, as in the period 2014-2021, when the country was in the middle of a civil war after the overthrow of its regime. Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The government presented by former Interior Minister Fati Basaga, approved by the parliament based in eastern Libya, is in conflict with the government based in Tripoli, which was formed under the agreements signed under the auspices of the UN under Abdelhamid Dibeba, who refuses to hand over power unless elections are held first.
In addition, Basaga formed his government after allying with the strongman of eastern Libya, General Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by Moscow.
On March 10, armed groups supporting Basaga took up positions outside Tripoli to support him, raising fears of a resurgence of hostilities and the collapse of the October 2020 ceasefire.
“Lost bet”
“Basaga bet on the politics of the accomplished, he was convinced that with the confidence of the parliament (…) he would be able to easily overthrow the government supported by the international community. But he quickly realized that this was a lost bet,” said Khaled al-Monta. International Relations at the University of Tripoli.
The envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Libya, Stephanie Williams, and the US Ambassador, Richard Norland, had to make a diplomatic effort to defuse tensions following the mobilization of armed groups to support Bashar al-Assad. through negotiation.
Last week, the Security Council requested that in addition to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ongoing inspections in Iran, that it monitor Iran’s compliance with “the steps required by the IAEA Board”. The exception was Russia, which actively supported Basaga’s new government.
“Libya’s executive branch is facing a crisis that, if left unresolved, could lead to instability and parallel governments in the country,” warned Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs. Security Council.
“Death”
“The international community, and especially the United States, does not want to see a resurgence of the conflict in Libya, especially in the current context of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” said Faraz al-Dali, a political analyst.
Although envoys and diplomats do not see Russia at this stage as likely to force Haftar to help oust the Bashaga government in Tripoli, some analysts estimate that Moscow may use its influence to disrupt oil production in Tripoli. Libya and maintain market pressure.
Groups loyal to Haftar did threaten to shut down oil facilities in eastern Libya last week as industrialized nations pressured members of Libya-owned Opec to increase production to reassure the market.
Regardless of any Russian influence, resorting to military option is “theoretically possible” for Basaga, because he may be based on armed groups in western Libya, Montasser said.
But that would mean the “death” of his government as it would push it into “an armed conflict that could last for months or even years,” he warned.
“Given that both sides have everything to lose and nothing to gain from the resurgence of hostilities,” a political dialogue “remains the most logical way to reach a compromise” through some concessions “on both sides, he concludes.
SOURCE: AMPE
Source: Capital
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