The positive phase remains intact as long as it does not move below 1.1965 – UOB

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The currency strategists of UOB Group expect further gains in EUR / USD as long as it trades above the 1.1965 level.

24 hour outlook: “Yesterday, we held the view that the EUR could rise to 1.2060, but it was unlikely to break the next resistance at 1.2080. Our opinion was not wrong as the euro rose to 1.2069. That said, we did not anticipate the subsequent strong and rapid sell-off (the EUR fell to 1.1992 during New York hours). While the bearish momentum has not improved much, there is room for the EUR to fall below the overnight low. However, any weakness is considered part of a lower range of 1.1985 / 1.2045. In other words, a clear break out of 1.1985 is unlikely ”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from yesterday (April 22, even at 1.2035) still stands. As highlighted, the Positive phase that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact as long as the EUR does not move below 1.1965. That said, the bullish momentum is beginning to wane and the outlook for the EUR to advance to 1.2115 has waned. From here on, the euro has to move and sustain above 1.2070 within these 1-2 days or a breakout of 1.1965 (no change in the ‘strong support’ level) would not be surprising and would indicate that the positive phase has finished”.

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