The pound sterling wins while Trump prepares to reveal reciprocal tariffs

• The pound sterling is listed laterally about 1,2940 against the US dollar while investors expect the US president, Trump, to reveal reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.
• Goldman Sachs sees greater recession risks in the US in the middle of the nerves for Trump’s tariffs.
• The BOE is expected to follow a moderate monetary expansion cycle this year.

The sterling pound (GBP) is listed upwards in front of its main peers at the beginning of the week, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), whose attraction as a safe refuge has increased in the midst of fears for the reciprocal tariffs of the president of the US, Donald Trump, which will be revealed in the so -called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday. The British currency gains land since investors expect Trump tariffs to have a nominal impact on the United Kingdom’s economic perspectives (UK).

On Thursday, the Treasury Chancellor of the United Kingdom, Rachel Reeves, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that they are working intensely in these next days to try to ensure a “good agreement for Britain.” The optimism that the impact of Trump’s tariffs will be very limited in the United Kingdom is also driven by Trump’s comments at the end of February, where he said he is not sure to impose tariffs on the United Kingdom. Trump was also confident that an agreement could be reached since the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, was “very friendly.”

Meanwhile, the encouraging data of retail sales in the United Kingdom for February have also strengthened sterling pound. The National Statistics Office (ONS) reported Friday that retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, surprised by increasing 1% month by month compared to an expected fall of 0.3%.

In addition, the hopes of a moderate policy flexibility cycle by the Bank of England (BOE) have also kept the pound sterling in a favorable position. Market participants expect the BOE to cut interest rates only twice this year. The BOE has already reduced interest rates once in 2025.

What moves the market today: the sterling pound moves laterally against the US dollar

• The sterling pound is stabilized against the US dollar (USD) around 1,2940 in the American session on Monday. The GBP/USD torque quotes while the US dollar is stabilized before Trump’s tariffs on Wednesday.
• Investors expect President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to significantly impact global economic growth. The goods that attract greater tariffs will become less competitive globally, and their respective companies will be forced to reduce their prices significantly. Such a scenario will force them to get rid of their products in other nations.
• Barclays analysts said: “We hope that countries with the highest commercial deficits in goods with the US and with the highest non -tariff tariffs and barriers could potentially be the objective of reciprocal tariffs.” According to its theory, the European Union (EU), China, Canada, India and Japan will face greater tariffs by the United States.
• Financial market participants believe that the US economy will also face short -term economic risks due to Trump’s tariffs. Goldman Sachs analysts have reviewed the probabilities of a recession in the US to 35% from their previous 20% expectations. His upward review of the recession risks has been based on an acute “deterioration in the confidence of households and companies” and statements of White House officials that indicate “a greater willingness to tolerate short -term economic weaknesses” in search of their policies.
• This week, investors will also focus on a series of US economic data, such as the Purchase Management Index (PMI) of Manufacturing and Services of the ISM and the indicators related to the labor market, which will influence market speculation on the monetary policy perspective of the Federal Reserve (FED).

Technical Analysis: The sterling pound remains above 1,2900

The sterling pound continues to oscillate around the 61.8%fibonacci setback, drawn from the maximum of September to the minimum of mid -January, about 1,2930 against the US dollar. In addition, the 20 -day exponential (EMA) mobile average continues to provide a support of the torque around 1,2890.

The 14 -day relative force index (RSI) cools about 60.00 after having been overcomplicated above 70.00. A new bullish impulse should arise if the RSI resumes its ascending path after staying above the 60.00 level.

Looking down, the 50% fibonacci setback about 1,2770 and the 38.2% fibonacci setback in 1,2610 will act as key support areas for the torque. On the positive side, the maximum of October 15, 1,3100 will act as a key resistance zone.