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“The President of Honduras wanted to flood the US with cocaine.” How Washington is “at war” with drug cartels

At the trial of a Honduran drug dealer, a US prosecutor accused Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez of involvement in the drug trade, claiming that he took bribes, ordering the military to protect cocaine laboratories and supply chains in the United States. At the same time, Washington supported Hernandez for a long time, providing abundant economic assistance to Honduras. Now the future of such a policy is in question, and the fight against drug cartels can only become more urgent. Will the United States stop helping Honduras, what will it lead to and can it end with the declaration of a “full-scale war” on drugs

 

“FLOOR US WITH COCAINE”

Relations between the United States and Honduras have been actively developing since the 1980s. Washington used the territory of this state to spread influence throughout Central America and fight left-wing forces. “From the territory of Honduras, with the support of the United States, a fight was fought against the Ortega regime in Nicaragua: there were Contras training bases, there was an active sale of weapons and military equipment. Under Reagan, an American military base was opened there,” says Lecturer at the Institute of International Relations, Kyiv National University Shevchenko Inna Voloshenko.

And, despite political crises and geopolitical reorientations, the United States continued to develop relations with Honduras. Even the controversial figure of the current President Hernandez did not become an obstacle. In 2009, as a congressman, he supported a military coup in the country, which Washington condemned. Four years later, when he became president, an investigation was launched against him by the US Drug Enforcement Administration. Whether it is still being carried out is unknown. In 2017, independent observers accused him of blatant fraud in the presidential elections, but Hernandez was still declared the winner. Due to the dubious outcome of the electoral race in the country, mass protests began, which he decided to suppress, which turned into dozens of killed and hundreds of wounded protesters.

At the same time, the 45th US President Donald Trump not only welcomed his re-election, but also praised the country’s “progress in protecting human rights and fighting corruption,” continuing to provide financial assistance to Honduras, de facto saving the power of the current president. Some Western media even call him one of Trump’s key allies. The US favor with Hernandez was probably based on his commitment to American migration policy. In 2019, Washington noted a sharp decline in the number of arrests of Hondurans at its borders.

Another factor in Trump’s sympathy for Hernandez was the war on drugs in Honduras. Although Tegucigalpa is said to have actively fought drug trafficking, Honduras, according to the US State Department, remains a key transit country for “cocaine-laden planes” from South America, which then fly to the United States. This is due to limited infrastructure and a de facto lack of authorities in some regions of the country, as well as weak law enforcement agencies.

In 2019, the brother of the President of Honduras, Tony Hernandez, was convicted in the United States of organizing a “state-sanctioned” drug trafficking network that sent tons of cocaine to the United States. Prosecutors and witnesses linked Juan Hernandez to this network, because, in addition to his brother, the then chief of the local police was also involved in the drug trade, allegedly acting on behalf of the president. Hernandez denied all accusations and was never issued a suspicion. “The lack of an investigation was the moment of bargaining on the immigration issue, which was key for Trump,” explains Voloshin, adding that since Trump came to power, “the United States has been pressing hard on Honduras, threatening to refuse assistance to the country if Hernandez does not contain the waves of migrants.”

Now Trump is no longer president, but the story of Hernandez continues. On March 9, at the trial in the United States of Honduran drug dealer Giovanni Fuentes Ramirez, the New York federal prosecutor’s office said they had a witness who was present at the meeting between Hernandez and Ramirez when they planned to smuggle cocaine into the United States. During one of the meetings that took place in 2013 and 2014, the President of Honduras allegedly said that he “would like to shove drugs right into the noses of the gringos, flooding the United States with cocaine.” He was also accused of protecting drug laboratories and smuggling routes in the United States. And this story may end less favorably for Hernandez due to the presidency of Joe Biden, whose migration policy differs from Trump’s.

WHAT CONSEQUENCES ARE HONDURAS

Now the new American administration is just beginning to form the foreign policy agenda, in particular, in Central America. Earlier, Biden offered to allocate $ 4 billion in aid to this region (including Honduras) in order to create conditions for the development of the economy and reduce migration to the United States. Now, his plans may complicate not only accusations against Hernandez, but also a recent call by a number of Democrats to stop providing financial assistance and the sale of ammunition to Honduras, as well as to impose sanctions against the president of this country for drug trafficking and corruption.

The deterioration of relations between the United States and Honduras is quite possible, Candidate of Political Science, analyst at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI and expert on Latin American countries Alexandra Kovaleva. However, such a scenario is possible only at the behest of Washington, the expert says, because Honduras “is so closely tied to the United States that it is unlikely to dare to do this, since the severance of ties will have devastating consequences for its economy.” According to Kovaleva, the severity of American measures against Honduras will be determined by the reaction of the country’s political elites, for example, if the United States demands the extradition of Hernandez.

The accusations against Hernandez are a blow to a relationship that could sacrifice the war on the drug trade, says international expert Denis Moskalik

“The main consequences of the deterioration of relations with the United States for Honduras will be primarily economic. There is a possibility of the introduction of sanctions against individuals and the ruling party, whose links with drug cartels are being investigated. For Honduras, the United States is the main economic partner, so sanctions can hurt the country.” – says Kovaleva.

A similar opinion is shared by the international expert at the Center for Political Studies Doctrine Denis Moskalik, claiming that the current accusations against Hernandez will negatively affect ties between countries: “This is a blow to relations that could sacrifice the war on the drug trade.” At the same time, not only Honduras, but also the United States may feel negative consequences due to the potential growth of illegal migration.

Voloshin adheres to a slightly different view, stating that it is too early to talk about the quality of changes in relations between the countries, but at the same time Biden’s departure from Trump’s migration policy “certainly changes the tone of the dialogue between them”: “A tough position on the prevention of abuse and illegal activities of representatives of the highest the Honduran authorities testify to the termination of US loyalty to Hernandez in exchange for his support for American migration policy. ”

WILL THERE BE A WAR ON DRUGS

The current situation with the accusations of the President of Honduras of involvement in drug trafficking in the United States resembles the story of the late 1980s, when Washington invaded Panama, in particular, under the pretext of a war with the drug network organized by the once American ally, former commander of the Panamanian armed forces, Manuel Noriega.

The similarity of these situations is seen by the teacher of the Department of International Relations of the Odessa National University named after Mechnikov Ekaterina Vakarchuk. At the same time she says that if the invasion of Honduras does happen, it will be “the local work of American agents,” since even with regard to Venezuela, “Biden adheres to a diplomatic approach.” At the same time, the main theme of Biden’s interest in Central America will be the renewed influence in the region.

Financial assistance, the presence of US law enforcement officers on the territory of Honduras and the formation of a new government will continue to be the foundations of the US anti-drug policy in this country, says Inna Voloshina

Kovaleva believes that the situation with Honduras differs from the story with Panama due to the different levels of Washington’s strategic interest – the United States needed Panama to control the canal, which is key to security and the economy. Honduras is not of such interest, and therefore there is no prospect of a direct invasion. The closest thing to such a scenario, she said, was Mexico, when Trump considered declaring drug cartels terrorist organizations, creating grounds for armed intervention.

In particular, there is no point in the invasion of Honduras, since the United States has more civilized mechanisms to combat drug trafficking, says Voloshina: “The United States has achieved significant success in the fight against drug trafficking from Central American states. This is the fight against the largest drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia, the connection with which is incriminated to the President of Honduras. Financial assistance, the presence of US law enforcement officers in Honduras and the formation of a new effective government in this country will continue to be the foundations of American anti-drug policy. ”

Honduras can become one of the platforms for demonstrating the United States’ resolve to put an end to the problem of illegal drug trafficking, says Alexandra Kovaleva, an analyst at the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI

At the same time, the issue of the US war on drugs has already intensified and now the new administration is trying to determine its own line of struggle, says Kovaleva. According to her, Biden is interested not only in combating drug flows in the United States, but also in the illegal supply of American weapons to drug cartels: “Honduras can become one of the platforms for demonstrating the United States’ determination to end the problem of illegal drug trafficking by deepening cooperation with Latin American allies, which will also contribute to strengthening the leadership positions of the superpower in the region. ”

Moskalik says the same, stating that the situation with Hernandez is a continuation of the previously intensified American struggle against Mexican drug cartels, and “Honduras is the periphery in this war”: “This is not a situation where direct intervention is needed. The likely consequences are a cooling of relations, sanctions, the political crisis in Honduras and the prosecution of individuals involved in this case. ”

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