The price of gold falls as US retail sales exceed expectations

• The price of gold falls as the expectations of a Fed fees cut in September decrease, supporting US yields and dollar.
• The US retail sales data exceed estimates, a sign that consumer spending has improved.
• Xau/USD falls into a narrow range, with a break above $ 3,371 or a fall below $ 3,292 that will probably define the next directional movement.

Gold (Xau/USD) is experiencing a setback in Thursday’s European session while operators digest US retail sales data and expect further comments from Federal Reserve officials (FED). The yellow metal lies about $ 3,315 at the time of writing, losing almost 1% in the day.

With the moment of when the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rates still uncertain, several members of the Central Bank are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The comments of Governor Adriana Kugler, the president of San Francisco Mary Daly, Governor Lisa Cook and Governor Christopher Waller, will be followed closely.

If investors anticipate that rates will remain higher for longer, there would be a greater demand for US yields, which is not favorable for assets without yield such as gold.

In addition, gold serves as a safe refuge during times of economic uncertainty. This puts the US economic calendar in the center of attention. On Thursday, US retail sales data for June exceeded estimates, increasing 0.6% in June, above 0.1% expected by economists. This marks a positive turn for consumer spending trends, which contracted 0.9% in May. Unemployment requests were also better than expected, further supporting the US dollar and weighing over gold.

What moves the market today: gold expects key Fed comments while uncertainty about the time of feat cuts persists

• The retail sales control group, which excludes volatile components such as cars, gas and construction materials, provides a clearer image of basic consumer spending. It is considered a more precise indicator of the underlying retail activity and the general consumer demand. The 0.5% increase in June, after an increase of 0.2% in May, indicates a stronger consumer expense, which typically supports economic growth.
• The minutes of the Federal Mercado Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that the majority of Fed members continue to doubt their restrictive position without clearer signs of disinflation. As the labor market has shown signs of resilience, the implications of tariffs on inflation remain a key concern. This hard line tone has weighed over gold, which typically moves inversely to interest rates and the US dollar.
• The US Consumer Price Index (ICC) for June, published on Tuesday, reflected persistent consistent inflation, particularly with underlying inflation by increasing to 2.9% year -on -year from 2.8% in May, moving further away from the 2% target of the Fed. This suggests that price pressures remain high, especially in essential services and areas, which the FED monitors the FED monitor closely.
• In contrast, the US Price Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday showed that there was no monthly growth and a deceleration in annual terms. This suggests that the costs of inputs in the upper part are decreasing, which could eventually be reflected in lower consumer inflation, although not immediately.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut at the September meeting is currently 52.4%, while the prospects for the FED to maintain the stable rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%in the same meeting increase to 46.3%.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains in a range between $ 3,300 and $ 3,400

The price of gold has fallen below the simple mobile average (SMA) of 50 days at $ 3,323, with the 20 -day SMA providing resistance at $ 3,331.

As the price action remains within the confines of a symmetrical triangle pattern in the daily time frame, the metal remains in a range.

The psychological level of $ 3,300 continues to provide support, with the Fibonacci recoil level of 38.2% of the low-high movement of April just below, around $ 3,292. A deeper setback could open the door to an extended descending movement towards the fibonacci setback of 50% about $ 3,228 and towards the next psychological level of $ 3,200.

Daily Gold Graph (Xau/USD)

In order for the bullish trend to win traction, a 20 -day SMA rupture is required and above the resistance of the triangle at $ 360. The next resistance level is found in the fibonacci setback of 23.6% in $ 3,372, followed by the maximum of Monday of $ 3,375 and the psychological level of $ 3,400 in the focus.

The relative force index (RSI) in 48 reflects a lack of decisive impulse.