- The gold rises to a maximum of four days while the DXY recovers after touching a new minimum of three years.
- The US Senate approves a bill of tax cuts of 4.5 billion dollars; The bull market is largely indifferent to fiscal holders.
- Jolts and ISM employment offers data support Powell’s waiting position; ADP and NFP in the focus below.
The price of gold rises more than 1% while the US dollar reduces some of its previous losses, which led to the US dollar index (DXY) to a minimum of three years. Meanwhile, the US Senate approved Trump’s fiscal bill, which is ready to be sent to the House of Representatives for approval. At the time of writing, the Xau/USD is traded at $ 3.340, negotiating around four days.
Bloomberg revealed that “the senators voted 51-50 to approve the bill. Vice President JD Vance issued the decisive vote. The package, which now goes to the camera, combines 4.5 billion dollars in tax cuts with 1.2 billion dollars in expense cuts.”
The approval of the bill has been ignored by bullion operators so far. The US economic data were not ignored, justifying the waiting position of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell.
The US job and rotation offers survey (Jolts) of the US revealed that vacancies increased in May, exceeding economists’ forecasts. The manufacturing activity, according to the Supply Management Institute (ISM), contracted for the fourth consecutive month, but showed signs of improvement, approaching the expansion/contraction threshold.
Recently, Powell appeared in the media and remained slightly Hawkish.
Apart from this, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besunt, warned that countries could be notified of higher tariffs as the deadline of July 9 is approaching.
This week shortened, before the US Independence Day on July 4, it will have ADP employment figures, initial unemployment requests and the non -agricultural payroll report for June.
What moves the market today: the price of gold rises while US yields and the US dollar advance
- Gold continues its recovery, even while the yields of the US Treasury bonds go up. The 10 -year Treasury bonus yield is 4,242%, an increase of three and a half basic points. The real US yields, which are calculated by subtracting inflation expectations of nominal performance, are also rising about four basic points to 1,979%.
- The last Jolts report revealed that job offers in May reached its highest level since November, reaching 7,769 million, compared to 7,391 million, and exceeding 7.3 million forecasts.
- The ISM manufacturing PMI in June improved, although it remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month. The index rose to 49.0, from 48.5 in May and above the estimates of 48.8.
- Powell revealed that politics is moderately restrictive and added that he cannot say if July is too early to cut rates, although he would not rule out anything. He said that if it weren’t for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the US Federal Reserve probably would have trimmed the rates even more.
- Citi expects gold prices to return to $ 2,500 – $ 2,700 in the second half of 2026.
- Employment data will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday. It is projected that the change of employment ADP improves 37K private jobs added to the workforce to 85K. JUNE non -agricultural payroll figures will probably show that the labor market is effectively cooling, projecting at 110,000, compared to May 139,000.
- Monetary markets suggest that operators are discounting 62 basic relief points towards the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Fountain: Prime Market Terminal
Xau/USD technical perspective: The price of gold is prepared to challenge the $ 3,400
The golden gold trend remains intact, although operators need to achieve a daily closure above the single mobile (SMA) of 50 days at $ 3,322, which would keep them hopeful of higher prices. The bullish impulse has increased, as indicated by the relative force index (RSI).
That said, if the Xau/USD rises above $ 3,350, the following area of ​​interest would be $ 3,400. With greater force, the following levels of resistance would be $ 3,450 and the historical maximum (ATH) at $ 3,500.
On the contrary, if gold falls below the 50 -day SMA, the first support would be $ 3,300. A rupture of this last will present the minimum of June 30, $ 3,246.
FAQS GOLD
Gold has played a fundamental role in the history of mankind, since it has been widely used as a deposit of value and a half of exchange. At present, apart from its brightness and use for jewelry, precious metal is considered an active refuge, which means that it is considered a good investment in turbulent times. Gold is also considered a coverage against inflation and depreciation of currencies, since it does not depend on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the greatest gold holders. In their objective of supporting their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy gold to improve the perception of strength of the economy and currency. High gold reserves can be a source of trust for the solvency of a country. Central banks added 1,136 tons of gold worth 70,000 million to their reservations in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. It is the largest annual purchase since there are records. The central banks of emerging economies such as China, India and Türkiye are rapidly increasing their gold reserves.
Gold has a reverse correlation with the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which are the main reserve and shelter assets. When the dollar depreciates, the price of gold tends to rise, which allows investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rebound in the stock market tends to weaken the price of gold, while mass sales in higher risk markets tend to favor precious metal.
The price of gold can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession can cause the price of gold to rise rapidly due to its condition of active refuge. As an asset without yield, the price of gold tends to rise when interest rates lower, while the money increases to the yellow metal. Even so, most movements depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, since the asset is quoted in dollars (Xau/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep the price of gold controlled, while a weakest dollar probably thrusts gold prices.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
