The price of gold shines as the USD slides, the commercial war feeds the demand for safe refuge

• Gold is on its way to a weekly gain of more than 1.5% as tariff threats change the mood to negative.
• Trump confirms that tariffs of up to 70% can enter into force on August 1 amid an increase in commercial tensions.
• The Secretary of the Treasury, Besent, hopes that 100 countries face reciprocal tariffs, while commercial agreements are coming.

The price of gold resumes its upward trend on Friday, ready to register profits of more than 1.50% for the week, since the US dollar is in setback in the midst of low liquidity conditions after the closure of US markets in celebration of Independence Day. A slight escalation of the commercial war promoted precious metal prices. The XAU/USD quotes at $ 3.333, with an increase of 0.26%.

The president of the USA, Donald Trump, said they would begin sending letters to the countries on Friday, before the deadline of July 9. He announced that some of the tax tariffs will be in the range of 10% to 70% and will take effect on August 1. In this regard, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, said he expects an avalanche of commercial agreements before July 9 and estimates that around 100 countries will receive a minimum reciprocal tariff of 10%. He added that they will announce some agreements.

The expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) could maintain unchanged rates for a limited time limited the advance of gold. The data published on Thursday revealed that the US labor market presented solid numbers, although most of the new additions to the workforce came from the government. On the contrary, private hiring was the lowest in eight months, since companies prepare for an economic deceleration.

As for Geopolitics, Trump said he had a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, revealing that there was no progress in Ukraine and Russia. Recently, Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky that he wants to help with air defense due to Russian attacks, according to Axios.

Next week, the US economic agenda will remain light. The operators will wait for the publication of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC), followed by the initial unemployment subsidy applications for the week ending on July 5, and Fed speeches.

What moves the market today: the price of gold advances in the midst of stable US yields

• The bullish trend of the price of gold seems to be limited by the high yields of the US Treasury bonds. The 10 -year Treasury bonus yield ended at six and a half basic points at 4,338% on Thursday. The real US yet yields also increased three basic points to 2,018%.
• The American dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the dollar against a foreign exchange basket, is 0.13% down but clings to the figure of 97.00.
• The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ mainly “extends most of the 2017 2017 Trump Tax and Jobs Cutting Law, which were largely scheduled to expire at the end of 2025,” “According to Bloomberg. The Congress Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Taxation Committee revealed that the bill will add 3.4 billion dollars to the national deficit for a decade.
• The addition of billions of dollars to the national debt could exert pressure on the dollar and push the prices of rising gold as a coverage against an already elevated US debt roof.
• On Thursday, the US Labor Statistics Office (BLS) revealed that June non -agricultural payrolls were 147K, above the 110K expectations, and increased from the revised figure of May 144K. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%, and supports the cautious waiting approach and see of the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, while the Central Bank monitors the possible inflationary impact of commercial tariffs.
• The initial applications of unemployment subsidy for the week that ended on June 28 fell to 233,000, below the 240,000 expected and less than the reading of the previous week, indicating a resistant labor market.
• Monetary markets suggest that operators are discounting 50 basic relief points towards the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Xau/USD technical perspective: The price of gold is listed laterally above/below $ 3,350

The upward trend of the price of gold is not compromised, although the yellow metal has failed to register a new cyclical maximum beyond the peak of June 16, $ 3,452. The relative force index (RSI) suggests that the Xau/USD can be consolidated in the short term, since the RSI is flat around its neutral line.

For an upward continuation, the precious metal must exceed $ 3,400 and $ 3,452. Once exceeded, the following objective is the historical maximum of $ 3,500. On the contrary, if gold collapses below $ 3,300, a movement towards the minimum of June 30, $ 3,246 is in the letters. This level is critical for buyers because once exceeded, the next demand zone would be the minimum of May 15, $ 3,120.