The Presidential elections of 18ης June in Iran is approaching. But together they are approaching geostrategic developments that will affect the Middle East.
of Christou Argyriou *
A candidate name that will occupy us in the future is his Sayyid Ebrahim Raisol-Sabati by world Ibrahim Raisi. But the key to the elections and their aftermath in the Middle East lies in one rejection of the candidacy of former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.
Larijani as one of the closest advisers and collaborators of the outgoing President Rouhani, on nuclear issues and advocate of nuclear deal with US in 2015, would lead to Iran-US election at negotiating table to update this agreement.
His exclusion from the elections clearly shows how Iran no longer intends to follow moderate Rouhani negotiating line, as she was the one who deeply hurt Iran, in the eyes not only of the Shiites, but of the entire Muslim world. The reason was the Trump tactic that unnecessarily devalued the agreement, canceling not only the credibility of Iran but also of the EU as it disagreed with it.
Iran no longer on the negotiating table expected to agree with the US as in 2015, as it will have as a strategic priority the elevation / reconstruction of the country’s prestige in the eyes of the Muslim world and not only the Shiites.
I now return to the clerical candidate Raisi. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei appoints Raisi as head of judiciary not only as president but also as successor to 82-year-old Khamenei, showing us images from the future.
As a super-conservative, Raisi will take the opposite path from Rouhani’s outgoing reformist government, which pays for its foreign policy failure, and this is betrayed by the number of his associates who see their candidacies canceled.
Khamenei’s strategy is not geostrategic, it is primarily religious. Symbolism as an integral part of US foreign policy leads Khamenei to act accordingly. So the first name of Raisi is Sayyid, that is, the one who is accepted as a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. He is going to shoulder the role that Erdogan has been dreaming of for years, to unite Islam, with all that that entails for the Western world.
US foreign policy seldom goes hand in hand with a change of government. But this is happening now, at the most inopportune moment. Trump’s wrong decision to cancel Iran nuclear deal meets Biden’s disastrous decision to torpedo Trump’s Abraham peace deal, leading to anti-Israel and UAE exposing Israel wants the deal, considering the coexistence with the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE) of strategic importance.
Khamenei knows that the US is planting a time bomb in the Middle East, but he does not intend to see it explode in Mecca and will do everything to prevent it.. But if it fails, the legacy it will leave is for the bone wave to sweep the West as well, which is not at all difficult with the ever-increasing flow of Muslims to the West.
- Christos S. Argyriou is an Internationalist / Strategist and Stratfor Partner (TX, USA)
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