Published this Saturday (15), the InfoGripe Bulletin of Fiocruz recorded a 135% increase in the moving average of cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SRAG) in the last three weeks, up to January 8, compared to the final weeks of November.
The number was classified as very worrying by the team conducting the study, presented for the first time after the instability in the platforms of the Ministry of Health, which lasted more than a month. However, researchers understand that the scenario will become more critical next week.
Coordinator of InfoGripe and researcher of the Scientific Computing Program (PROCC/Fiocruz), Marcelo Gomes points out that the deadline used, January 8, still does not record the cases of contagion that occurred on Natal and mainly, Christmas Eve.
This is due to the time between the contagion and the aggravation of the cases, to the point of requiring hospitalization. These numbers should appear in next week’s edition.
The researcher reiterates that December is a typical period of increased social interactions, with greater exposure in the rush to trade, in addition to the fraternization events themselves, whether family or corporate. He points out that accurate information could have helped in decision making.
However, with the unavailability of the Ministry of Health’s systems following a cyber attack, epidemiological surveillance data became unavailable.
“What we are seeing in this update are increases in serious cases even before the end of the year celebrations. This shows how important it was for us to have a mobilization on the part of everyone. From public authorities, commerce, the private sector, for proper communication and appropriate measures. So that this increase, which was very strong throughout the month of December, did not generate an even greater impact on the celebrations”, he says.
The scenario analyzed coincides with the advance of the Ômicron variant of the coronavirus, considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) a lineage of concern, as it is more transmissible than the others.
According to the Ministry of Health, it is already prevalent in Brazil. In the same period, analyzed by the bulletin, the country also faced outbreaks and localized epidemics of Influenza A, which increased the rates of hospitalization for SARS.
“Unfortunately, what we expect to see is an even stronger increase, an even greater acceleration of this growth rate, in the data for the next few weeks. Consequence of this. Because we were already on an upward trend and, at the end of the year, we had a series of events and celebrations that, potentially, worsened the scenario even further”, concludes Gomes.
Reference: CNN Brasil
