The risks of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan are enormous

By Kostas Raptis

A second, more unpredictable “Ukraine” in the South China Sea? The previously announced, although outside the original program of her Asian tour, landing today at 17.30 (Greece time) of the speaker of the federal House of Representatives of the USA Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan has explosive momentum, as Beijing has warned that its armed forces “will not they will remain apathetic” in the face of what the Chinese side sees as a major provocation and meddling in its internal affairs.

The fact that the third in the hierarchy of the American state wishes to visit Taiwan and even with a military aircraft tests the reflexes of the People’s Republic, since the de facto seceded island since 1949 is considered part of “One China” and any high-level contact with the Taiwanese side is a quasi-recognition of its distinct status and an encouragement to the nationalist forces seeking an official declaration of its independence.

The principle of “One China” has even been recognized by the USA itself, with three joint Sino-American declarations after 1971, when they consented to the occupation of China’s seat at the UN by the People’s Republic as the only legal international subject.

Pelosi’s initiative is made even more problematic by the fact that it is not endorsed by the White House, although at the same time it recognizes the right of the speaker of the House of Representatives to carry it out. After all, just last week, and while the involvement with Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan had already arisen, Joe Biden had a long and “sincere” telephone conversation, on the fifth day of his presidential term, with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The latter’s warning that “those who play with fire will be burned by it” was Beijing’s message that it is up to the American side to choose whether or not to escalate the current crisis.

Ambiguity

The bilingualism of Washington, whether it is a product of a game of distribution of roles or arises from an authentic inability to coordinate the bodies of power in the US, multiplies the risks, but also the fronts of geopolitical tensions, in a peculiar “flight forward”.

At a time when the confrontation with Russia on Ukrainian soil is in full swing, in a way that does not verify the plans of the West, a powerful wing of the American political elite considers it appropriate to escalate tensions with China as well. Compared to the time depth of the Ukrainian crisis, this choice presents almost improvised characteristics.

The paradoxical result is that the 82-year-old Californian leader of the Democrats is implementing a policy that (as in the case of the Middle East, amid the failure of negotiations with Iran) “copying” that of the Trump administration, and even bidding. It is no coincidence that a number of officials of the previous US administration (former Secretaries of State and Defense, Michael Pompeo and Mark Esper, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, etc.) encourage and congratulate Pelosi, although Trump himself denounces her .

At the heart of their reasoning is the need to get rid of the doctrine of “strategic ambiguity,” that is, to maintain ambiguity about the extent to which the U.S. intends to become militarily involved in Taiwan’s defense should Beijing attempt to pursue its objective. of “military reunification” by force.

In reality, of course, Chinese strategy is more focused on the gradual absorption of Taiwan by economic means, as evidenced by the recent introduction of incentives for islanders who wish to work on the mainland. After all, such a thing is in harmony with the doctrine of the “peaceful emergence” of the Asian giant, without involvement in unnecessary (or simply premature) geopolitical tensions.

But this does not negate, especially in the times of Xi Jinping, who invests in the rise of national sentiment, the “red line” that will constitute any move by Taiwan towards independence and international recognition. One only has to read Chinese commentators who they are calling for the interception or even downing of Pelosi’s plane to realize the extent of Chinese anger.

The Chinese leadership is called upon to demonstrate the intelligence that will allow it to overcome the current crisis without being humiliated, but also without falling into the trap of escalation. In other words, to keep China’s rise peaceful, while competitors do not have the patience to watch it without “accelerating” developments in an unpredictable direction.