The Russian mistake that ‘betrayed’ Wagner’s mercenary headquarters in eastern Ukraine

By Sebastien Roblin

In recent days, the Ukrainians have been literally photo bombing, using propaganda images released by the Russians in order to pinpoint targets and deliver a fatal blow to the invaders.

On August 8-9, Telegram accounts linked to the Wagner Group published photos of Russian war correspondent Sergei Shredda visiting oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin – head of Wagner – at a building allegedly used as a base for Russian mercenaries in the city Popashna of eastern Ukraine.

Not sure when these photos were taken (posted two days ago) but they reportedly show Wagner fighters in Popasna. The first photo looks like Yevgeny Prigozhin. https://t.co/TzMKrTVG50https://t.co/z4qevnoDUt pic.twitter.com/yWGc66X8im

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 11, 2022

In particular, photos were released that revealed many details of the building and its surroundings – even a street address sign (Mironivska 12) seen in the upper left corner of one photo.

As regular Russian Army units are weakened by losses in dead and wounded, as well as general fatigue from 5.5 months of hostilities, Wagner’s mercenaries have moved to the forefront of Russian military operations in Ukraine, which captured and the town of Popashna in early May. In August, photographs were released showing the mutilated body and severed hands and head of a Ukrainian prisoner of war, hanging from poles near the city center.

On the Ukrainian front, there has been an increase in the presence of Russian soldiers who are not properly trained and motivated to respond on the battlefield, resulting in the use of Wagner Group mercenaries, regional volunteer units, and some formations with special forces training as strike forces. , which have also been hit. However, Team Wagner casualties do not count as Russian military casualties and can be “swept under the carpet” thanks to confidentiality agreements linked to large financial compensations to the families of the dead.

However, making public – essentially – the address where a Wagner mercenary HQ is located was an unfathomable choice, given that Ukraine successfully fired M31 missiles – with HIMARS recently procured from the US – against the Russian mercenary base.

Last Sunday, the Telegram account “Reverse Side Of The Medal” – linked to the Wagner Group – posted a photo showing the building Prigozhin had visited destroyed after an attack. The Russian Telegram posts spoke of heavy casualties and that the strike “probably” came from a HIMARS.

Looks like Wagner sustained casualties in Popasna. Notably, photos were published a few days ago showing Yevgeny Prigozhin at a building in the city, which some dubbed as Wagner’s headquarters. https://t.co/czrFSLuVH1 pic.twitter.com/rg9BsddsSs

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 14, 2022

The previously posted photos had provided enough information for the Ukrainians to locate the mercenary headquarters.

1/2 On Monday, Aug. 8th, Russian journo published the photos of “Wagner PMC” headquarters in Popasna, including the sign with the building address: “Mironivska, 12”. “Putin’s cook” Prigozhin can be seen on the pics. Today this building (48.616, 38.360) was hit by Ukrainian strike pic.twitter.com/TDQtI5WrPw

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) August 14, 2022

The Telegram channel linked to Wagner gave various versions of the mercenary casualties, including a death toll of 54. On Monday, a video purportedly showing the building that was attacked began circulating.

📽️Ukrainian forces reportedly hit a Wagner base in occupied Popasna, #Luhansk Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/e8EuiifSFu

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 15, 2022

Other accounts linked to Wagner began to complain about the photos revealing dangerous information, and so the original post was deleted. But it was too late; they had already been widely circulated on social media. The lack of basic operational security revealed by the photographs of Prigozhin’s visit to the mercenary base was so glaring that it led some analysts to question whether it was a well-staged hoax.

However, this was not the first time the Russians sacrificed operational security to capture propaganda footage, resulting in their forces receiving deadly precision strikes from the Ukrainians.

In May, Russian war correspondent Sasha Koch filmed a 2S4 mortar hidden near an abandoned factory while firing missiles at Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk. A few days later, Ukraine recorded the destruction of the said 2S4 near the plant.

#Ukraine: Apparently we have the first loss of a very potent 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled heavy mortar – the Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian example in Rubizhne, #Luhansk Oblast recently. A catastrophic explosion included. pic.twitter.com/ftwlhpNUj6

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) May 21, 2022

Millionaire mercenary and “Putin’s chef”

Following the recent attack, Russian defense expert Rob Lee noted a “tempered panic” in reports from Russian social media accounts that the unknown whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin had probably been revealed, while concerns were raised that he himself might have been injured or killed inside the building.

However, as Lee reported, several Russian sources later confirmed that Prigozhin was alive, without giving further details of his whereabouts.

Known as “Putin’s chef” because of the restaurants and food supply companies he owns, Prigozhin is the head and financier of the Wagner Group. This mercenary network is growing around the world, acting as an “unspoken” and expendable extension of the Kremlin’s foreign policy. Technically, mercenary companies are illegal in Russia, so the Group’s existence is not officially recognized, despite its prominent presence in countries around the world such as Ukraine, Mozambique and Venezuela.

Prigozhin runs the mercenary group together with his associate Dmyktro Ukhtin, the Group’s military chief and founder, a former lieutenant colonel of Russia’s neo-Nazi-leaning Military Intelligence Service (GRU) (hence the Group’s name by Hitler’s favorite German composer).

Short thread here on Dmitry Utkin, the commander of the Russian Wagner mercenary force. A picture of this distinguished gentleman appeared online showing him sporting Nazi tattoos. https://t.co/kmGZCu6eqr pic.twitter.com/lKWtb1R5q1

— Samer Al-Atrush (@SameralAtrush) February 27, 2021

Prigozhin is wanted by the FBI for his role in funding and directing an army of online trolls that interfered in the 2016 US election through fake news to boost the candidacy of Donald Trump, who was more sympathetic to Moscow.

Additionally, in 2018, US intelligence intercepts recorded Prigozhin telling the Syrian government that he had Moscow’s permission to use “swift and strong measures” to deliver a “good surprise” on February 7-9.

Prigozhin’s report was about an attack launched on February 7 by Syrian military forces and Wagner mercenaries on an oil well near Deir ez-Zor, which was being defended by Kurdish militias and members of US Special Forces. The capture of the oil well would give the Russian mercenaries a 25% share of the profits. However, American warplanes and artillery crushed the attacking forces, killing dozens or – according to some accounts – over a hundred Russian mercenaries.

The strike at Wagner’s headquarters in Popasna will have an impact on the Group’s military operations in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the mercenary network will remain the mainstay of the exhausted forces of the regular Russian Army, of which a very small percentage remain capable of offensive operations after about 6 months of heavy fighting.

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bridge” in southern Ukraine