The scenarios for the energy efficiency of the country

By Harry Floudopoulos

With a daily demand for gas at 230GWh, 50% or 115GWh is currently coming from Russia and it will have to be considered how it will be replenished in the event that there is an end to the flow from Moscow.

According to the assessment made by the competent bodies during yesterday’s meeting on the country’s energy efficiency, the most probable scenario is that there will be no interruption of the flow of Russian gas, at least for the contractually agreed quantities. If there is no change in the data, the energy system will not face any problems, at least for the next period of April.

However, during the meeting, the responsible RIS K. Skrekas asked all those involved, as also mentioned by Capital.gr, to examine even the most extreme scenarios of zero flow of Russian gas based on the current picture. In this case, it seems that the strengths of the energy system will be tested, although with the recruitment of more lignite units, the conversion of 5 gas units to use oil and the possible arrival of additional liquefied natural gas loads, it does not seem that face a problem of adequacy.

It is noted that the arrival of three LNG loads in Revythousa is scheduled for April, on April 4 a load of PPC 220,000 MWh, on April 6 a load of Elpedison 250,000 MWh and on April 25 a load of Mytilineos 535,000 MWh. These loads, as reported yesterday, exceed the expected demand in the scenario that there will be no problem with the flow of Russian gas in April.

But if there is a problem with the flow of Russian gas, then on the one hand it will be necessary to increase lignite production, on the other hand to convert the 5 gas units (PPC, Elpedison, IRON) to use oil. It is noted that from the PPC side concerns were expressed, whether the increased use of lignite units in the current situation will create problems with lignite reserves in the yards of the units for the summer when the loads on the electrical system are expected to increase significantly. By Tuesday, PPC was invited to present the annual plan for lignite mining in its mines in order to ensure the smooth operation of its units.

In any case, for all possibilities, Mr. Skrekas asked the DESFA gas system administrator to submit a study with updated estimates for the needs of LNG and gas in general if there is a problem with the flow of gas from Russia. The scenarios will cover 3 different time periods

– The period April – October 2022.
– The period October 2022 – March 2023.
– The period April 2022 – March 2023.

To meet gas demand in the medium term, two scenarios are being considered: the first is to add a floating LNG storage tank (FSU) to Revythousa. In fact, DESFA will submit a CBA (Cost Benefit Analysis) for FSU by Friday. The second scenario, which according to the assessment made by the managing director MR Gali is preferable and more economically advantageous, is for Greece to seek to store, as provided by the recent decisions at EU level, quantities equal to 15 % of domestic demand in warehouses in neighboring Italy. In this case, however, technical parameters should be considered and especially if there is a technical possibility for the gas that has been stored in Italy to come to Greece whenever requested by the Greek authorities.