The sterling pound rises in front of the US dollar while the uncertainty over US tariffs

• The sterling pound moves slightly up to 1,3600 against the US dollar while investors expect developments on US trade negotiations.
• The US president, Trump, has announced new reciprocal tariffs for 21 nations, which will take effect on August 1.
• The BOE warns of economic risks amid geopolitical tensions and an increase in national debt.

The sterling pound (GBP) rises to about 1,3600 against the US dollar (USD) during the European negotiation session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair advances while the US dollar (USD) struggles to maintain a recovery of more than a week amid the uncertainty surrounding commercial discussions between the United States (USA) and its commercial partners.

At the time of writing, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six main currencies, falls slightly to about 97.40.

Until now, the US has announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom (UK) and Vietnam, and a limited agreement with China. The US president, Donald Trump, has expressed confidence in a commercial agreement with India, but has not yet confirmed it. Meanwhile, the US has announced new reciprocal tariff rates for 21 nations, notably Japan and South Korea, which are two important commercial partners.

Investors expect new developments on commercial negotiations between the US and other leading commercial partners, such as the Eurozone, China, Canada and Mexico. The scenario that the US does not reach agreements with these nations before the deadline of reciprocal tariffs of August 1 will accelerate concerns about global trade, which will be unfavorable for the US dollar.

The president of the USA, Trump, has also announced on August 1 as the day the 50% proposed tariffs on copper imports will enter into force, as indicated in a publication in Truth Social, highlighting its reach in several industries.

What moves the market today: the pound sterling progresses while the BOE warns about multiple economic risks

• The sterling pound advances in front of its main peers on Thursday. The British currency earns even when the Bank of England (BOE) warns about multiple risks to the United Kingdom economy (UK) in its report of the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) in the middle of the year on Wednesday.
• “The risk of sudden falls in risk assets prices, abrupt changes in asset allocation and a longer collapse in historical correlations is still high,” said the FPC committee, Reuters said. The Committee said “geopolitical tensions, global fragmentation of trade and financial markets, and pressures on sovereign debt” as responsible for the escalation of economic risks.
• The report also warned about a discouraging business feeling towards new investments, which could impact the labor market
• Last week, the risks to the sovereign debt of the United Kingdom increased after the Treasury Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a substantial increase in the Universal Credit (UC), which generated doubts about the credibility of the administration that promised to reduce fiscal spending.
• Meanwhile, investors expect the monthly data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United Kingdom and the data of May Factories, which will be published on Friday. The United Kingdom’s GDP is expected to have grown 0.1% after having decreased 0.3% in April.
• In the US, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Policy (Fed) meeting of June 17-18, published on Wednesday, indicated that most members argued in favor of maintaining stable interest rates in the midst of the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy. Those responsible for the policy supported reductions in interest rates later this year if the inflation driven by tariff turns out to be “modest and temporary.”
• The minutes also showed that two responsible for the policy advocated cuts in the interest rates at the July policy meeting. The two seem to be the governors of the Fed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who favored the need to undo the restrictivity of monetary policy amid the growing risks in the labor market in their latest comments.

Technical Analysis: The pound sterling is quoted laterally around the 20 -day EMA

The pound sterling quotes in a limited range around 1,3600 against the US dollar on Thursday. The GBP/USD torque ranges around the 20 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) about 1,3590, suggesting that the short -term trend is uncertain.

The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index falls about 50.00, indicating that the bullish impulse has vanished.

Looking down, the psychological level of 1,3500 will act as a key support zone. On the positive side, the maximum of three and a half years around 1,3800 will act as a key barrier.